Ok I managed to find it again.... realize these rules are at the national level, there could be additional restrictions in your state imposed at the state level.

info to find it yourself: R410a new equipment installation restrictions

Official harder to read: Official Rules on R410a phase out

Simplified (click to enlarge)

The complexity is that these rules effect more than just residential air conditioning / heat pump market.

Don't forget the fine print to bring it all "home". Read carefully. The con to R410a now is finding a properly sized unit for the structure you intend to use it.

The fine print: click to enlarge.

Thank you for the info

"Three years after the compliance date (2025)."

That would make it roughly 2028?

I was recommended to replace my (old but working fairly well) R-410 system before the end of 2024, due to expectations of a > 20-30% increase on purchasing costs with the new refrigerants.

You can expect some cost increase. However 20 - 30% is a scare tactic in my opinion. Be aware R-410a refrigerant will be available in the future but the price will increase as the supply decreases. It is not the best option if you plan to live in your house another 10+ years.

Thanks - I think I took the advice too literally thinking it meant 'what I would pay now would be 20-30% more expensive on Jan 1 2025, because R-410 systems would no longer be available.

I guess it is more a case of 'prices WILL go up gradually as the transition to new refrigerant gets underway, and R-410 system parts become harder to come by, but it sounds as though there's no real benefit on me paying for a new install now versus early next year,

I'm planning to move during 2025, but was concerned if my system failed as it was going on the market so was thinking proactively. I do have a home warranty but....

It is unlikely the parts to repair your current AC will increase significantly in 2025. I suggest you let the buyer of your house make the long term decision.

Out of curiosity I looked at the AC condensers currently listed on the Carrier, Trane, and Bosch web sites. Carrier and Trane only list equipment using R-410a refrigerant. Bosch however has one heat pump listed with the R-454B refrigerant along with those using R-410a.

sktn77a

20 hours ago

"Three years after the compliance date (2025)."

That would make it roughly 2028?

sktn77a that foot note you're reading doesn't apply to this section. There's more phase out parameters than just HVAC split systems. That's why they have that small little 1 foot note to refer you to the section in which it applies.

This is why I told you to be careful reading it.

-------------------

costs are going up *but with caveats* ... it depends on the situation, as some installs will be more difficult than others to comply with codes / requirements etc.

As a somewhat elaborate example: you have an older system you decide to repair (evap coil leaks) you replace the evaporator coil to fix the leak(s) -- refrigerant leaks. R410a or R22. Something happens to condenser? Depending on a plethora of other conditions it makes more sense to replace condenser?

Well if you can not get R410a condenser (sold out or past Jan 1, 2026) then to switch to different refrigerant (R32 or R454b) the evap coil that you just changed will have to be changed again to a more or less compliant new refrigerant coil. So under these kinds of parameters easily a 30% cost disparity.

If you buy it now and don't really need it? easily a 30% cost disparity.

If you need it buy it now and then sell the house? easily a 30% cost disparity although it may help you sell the house?

All of it tied to $MONEY$ (HVAC isn't a one size fits all market, never has been... and what I mention here is only tip of the proverbial ice berg.)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

I service the Katy, Texas area.

A quick revisit of this question - I've just been offered a 410a unit at deeply discounted cost by my service company - I don't know the actual cost as yet but would I be mad to consider it if the refigerant is going to be so hard to come by now?

Thank you, that's good to know. Hopefully the company's deal will make it worthwhile

I'd say it's a hard call right now. On the one hand you may have equipment (if you can find it in the right size) the refrigerant is plentiful at the moment. The con is primarily later when equipment parts and pieces maybe difficult to find, the refrigerant becomes more costly may not be the reason it used to be because the newer stuff most manufacturers are using is very expensive if you can even find it. (R454b -- national shortage)

If you live in a blue state that just follows California lead on a lot of this stuff, then you may not be able to buy the refrigerant legally.

Not saying I wouldn't entertain R410a equipment under certain circumstances, but I am in Texas. It really depends on the circumstance.

I think if you need a Evap Coil and a Condenser now and already have a newer furnace probably better to go with R32 AC system, as that has the longest life with little fuss over parts, pieces and refrigerant.

I can still repair R22 Freon, but cost wise starts arguing why not just upgrade to R32?

You have to remember these issues are more than just obtaining the refrigerant alone, you're not likely to be doing gas n goes for long once prices go north in 2029 when the production cuts hit again.

It's fine for a builder as he's not looking to go back. The options I provide have to work for much longer time frame. Obviously if someone chooses something I provide they will be fully aware of the risk of the choice. (I'm not a fortune teller, but I do have to inform of probable doom.) But you have to pick something in Texas, you won't live here without AC.

We have gone through a number of refrigerant phase outs affecting residential HVAC including R-12 (production ended in 1996) and R-22 (production ended in 2020.) The world didn't end when either refrigerant was no longer produced. By contrast, R-410A is subject to a gradual phase down; production will be reduced to 15% of baseline by 2036 and thereafter--but not phased out.

With R-410A demand for charging new systems being eliminated at year end 2025, and assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for residential HVAC systems, 15% of baseline--plus the additional amount of R410A available from recycling--should be ample supply for maintenance needs over the life of systems installed in 2025.

Hopefully the company's deal will make it worthwhile

Don't buy equipment because it has a big discount only to find out later it doesn't work well because it is not the correct size for your house.

It should go without saying that HVAC systems need to be properly sized.

The Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) has a published Quality Installation Specification which homeowners can compare with what their contractor proposes as their scope of work. Just search on ACCA Standard 5; it can be downloaded free.

Some updates - I now have a quote for a 29,200 BTUs 16 SEER2 a/c (R-410A*) and 70,000 BTUs 80% AFUE furnace (both Concord), both including 10 yr parts/1yr labor, for ~$8.800.

I've used the company for servicing my existing system for ~8yrs, and they have been great at answering questions and giving options

* acually I think I'm wrong and it's in fact R454B...(7AC14F30P)

My existing a/c system is from 2014 (36,000 BTU 13 SEER) and has had several moderately $$$ 'band-aid' fixes (minor leaks, etc) during those 8 yrs. I just spent ~$800 on it. The furnace is original (from 2000, 60,000BTU). Both are working but I'm advised that there are some issues that will likely need to be addressed within the next couple of yrs or so. I really don't want to have it break down in the heat of summer....

I do have a home warranty but understand that these rarely end up being helpful.

The complication now is that I may be looking to sell the house within the next year. I know I will lose money if I replace then sell, but am trying to work out if I should still do it. My house is 1500sq ft/3-bed is a fairly sought-after area and would likely sell for ~$400,000, but there are many similar properties for sale at any given time, so my old system is a negative. My roof is also original (built 2000) though seems to be holding up fairly well.

If I sell, it would be really nice not to have to worry about repairs/haggling on price , but am I mad to consider replacing my heating/cooling system?

Would appreciate constructive thoughts - thanks

If the HVAC system is operating then I don't see the need to replace it if you are planning to sell your house within the next year. A home inspector may show a 25 year old furnace is at the end of life as a negative. There there should be no issue with the 11 year old AC. Have the $800 repair ready to show you have been maintaining the equipment but only if it comes up.

The bigger concern for a buyer would be a 25 year old roof in my opinion. You may have to negotiate on price for that.

If I sell, it would be really nice not to have to worry about repairs/haggling on price , but am I mad to consider replacing my heating/cooling system?

Most will simply replace / repair what is wrong with the current system. I had a neighbor with an old R22 Freon unit that had begun to start leaking in the air handler. This was just prior to the change over to the new A2L refrigerants.

So I told them the risk is that changing the air handler now and keeping the older R22 condenser is that it would all have to be done again if A2L refrigerants come back as the only option forward. The R22 unit is probably north of 18 years if I remember correctly.

They told me they were selling the house soon. I told them you don't get any real credit for having a new AC, certainly it won't do you any favors with one that isn't working. But location, location, location is the primary reason people buy homes.

You could argue well they could buy one 30 minutes from here, yeah then they pay the price of traffic, gas money, time etc. having to drive an extra 30 minutes everyday that adds up. The other argument for this particular area was that it never floods the houses out. (They had lived in the neighborhood for over 20 years, I had lived there for about 15, my rental is across the street from them.)

What happnes in Vegas doesn't always stay in Vegas. (The gambler)

So they decided to gamble and replace that air handler to fix the refrigerant leak(s). The house sold without much fanfare other than a homeless person had broken into it and was caught living there by the real estate agent after they had moved out. (somebody left a door unlocked)

Anywho the house sold last year just before the holidays. -- so the neighborhood is full again. (good areas to live always do that for more reasons than xyz?)

Replacing the AC most manufacturers cut the warranty period to 5 yrs once the house sells / ownership changes. So the benefit of having a new HVAC system isn't as big as you think. You can for extra cost add an extended labor warranty to the HVAC system, if you think there may be some benefit to helping the new HVAC system sell the home for you. Then tell prospective buyers about it... but don't forget to read the fine print of what is / isn't covered. The last thing you want is something coming back on you.

Most of the time... the deal is done via an amount of money for unexpected repairs that may come up over the course of a year. Maybe a few thousand dollars depending on the size of the home etc. / other options are to include a home warranty... which my professional opinion these are more or less a waste of money most of the time, but in these situations help eliminate some risk of the transaction. (The deal)

My angle: I help people all the time navigate in my area in and around Katy, Texas the pros / cons of getting a home's HVAC system in shape good enough to get the house sold.

HVAC is not a 1 size fits all. While there are risks, as long as the house sells with in a reasonable amount of time (a year or less is good) -- I've been doing what I do a long time -- over 30 years in HVAC.

I've seen in person more things that you could shake a stick at and not always good, I can tell you that much.