Best wishes on your (educated) guess about the arrival of your hummers. I hope they arrive soon.

Weatherperson Kristin

Good luck in your predictions, but Im sure with the weather patterns that they are due to show up any day now from here on in. They have been reported in my county and two different directions from me and not even 20mi from me as the hummer flies. I suspect it will be sometime in may for me also, but you never know.

I know, they're just predictions, and whenever you think you've got them anticipated or figured out, they go off and do something surprising. That's part of the fun. For me, it's fun to try to understand and make as much sense of it as I can. Besides, it gives me something else to do besides staring at that darn migration map!

Hummersteve, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the connection between prevailing winds and the movements of migrating birds. Their movements aren't as random as I think you are suggesting. It's not as simple as it gets warm and they move north (although that certainly has a lot to do with it!). Birds don't like to waste energy flying into the wind. When there's low pressure, and rain, and winds blowing north to south, it's a known fact that migrants will stop and rest. When the winds come from the south, especially in connection with a high pressure system and good weather, birds will tend to advance northward. On the other hand, for all I know, "my" birds may still be down in Texas and have a couple more weeks of travels. Who can say?

I know it's just a guess on my part, but I'm thinking the weather patterns in a few days may provide a good opportunity for them to arrive here. If not, they'll get here eventually, perhaps in synchrony with another set of favorable winds.

More from budding weatherperson, Kristin.

Now I'm looking at "wind barbs." They are lines on a weather map showing the speed and direction of winds. The intensity is shown by length of the line and the number and size of the little arrow-like flags. The direction is kind of the same as real arrows, so a barb like this " >---- " would indicate a wind going from due west to east.

Anyway, I'm still thinking that tomorrow and Tuesday may be good days for hummer arrivals here in western PA. In connection with that high pressure, it looks like winds will be coming up the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, in a coherent flow pattern. Then again, maybe my little birds are waiting until the next system. By Wednesday, the winds get more random again, and it gets a bit cooler.

I'm trying to pay more attention to the feeders, now, and less to the migration map, but it's hard. Last year, the first ones on the migration map were on April 14th. This year, it wasn't until 13 days later, on April 27th. That's kind or worrisome. If they're 13 days later for me this year, they won't be returning until May 15th! Boo Hoo!

Please, somebody cheer me up. Send me a hummingbird photo, a video, or some kind encouraging words! I want my hummies back!

Here is a link that might be useful: Wind barbs, showing wind flow up MS and OH Valleys