Some are actually saying that a good part of the country will have an average summer, and the El nino (one of the many causes of this bad winter) is already showing signs of weakening and will be neutral by the summer. I hope we get lots of warm weather this summer. They are also already saying that this year the hurricane season will be more active since the el nino will not be present. Last summer we had a very quiet hurricane season because the El nino made for more wind shear and broke apart a lot of potential storms.

Good luck!

Probably another cool summer,unless this pattern breaks down.
It has been entrenched for over 2 years now here with only 1 above normal month and that was (Nov)
the month before all this cold weather-only good for setting my palms up for a hard winter and well forgotten at this point!

We could use a normal summer. Last year was wet dry and hot all at the wrong times...bad for tomatoes and bananas..

Here is a link that might be useful: okcpalms

I just drove down to south Florida and stopped over in Hilton Head SC and spent 10 days travelling around the south. It is cooler than normal. When we fist arrived SC had some snow; the first most folks under 30 ever saw.

That said, on the drive back Saturday, they were begining to plant bulbs in the carolinas for summer and it was in the 50s. South Florida was 65-70 most days and very sunny, soon as the sun went down we dropped in the 50s where it hovered all night. Normal is 75-80 for the SW coast.

I AGREE 100% with you jimhardy!! .

So does do the local weather stations guys..:-(

Thanks Mike
Yea those weather guys catch on after somethings been happening a few years!(-;
They will even "predict" it after it's already happening!
It's kind of a drag for the Bananas,cactus,Sabals and Washys,etc that really love warmth.
It is nice saving almost $2oo a month in air-co bills!
My Trachys don't mind though,if anythings alive after this winter.
Watch this summer cuz if there isn't drastic improvement in this pattern we may be headed for another COLD/long winter and we still have to break out of this one!
A warm March and April would go a long way to putting this endless winter behind us!/I'd settle for average right now,that would seem warm right now!!!!!!!!
Getting rid of the 9" of snow on the ground would help-first things first!

Yes, some meterologists take a while to match the forecast with the actual weather.

I hope you guys are wrong and summer is hot.

Normal would be fine(-:
Last July we were 8f below avg on highs(80 instead of 88f),had to be in the top 5(at least) coolest summers!.
Not a single 90f day in July(2009),I was looking at 1980 and we had 21 days over 90 and 4 above 100f!

Normal is fine-
What I found interesting is that after one of the coldest winters on record(1977-78)we had a very hot summer in 1980.
It will be interesting to see if ANY summer in the next few years is a hot* one.
By the way-there is no link between cold winters hot summers,in case you had heard that!(-;!Ouch

This summer HAS to be better than last. May, June, and July were ridiculous last year--it was chilly and overcast for days on end without any sun. Lived here over 40 years and never remember weather like that. August was better but killing frost was earlier than normal here (October rather than mid-late November), December was snowy (it's usually not), January and February have been stormy but not unusually cold and most of this year's big snow storms were south of me. Now we're in flood watches from a host of storms and melting snows and they're hinting at another BIG SNOW?/RAIN? storm to hit on Thursday/Friday. Still, it seems safe to assume that summer will be warmer (and sunnier) than last and that the coming hurricane season will be stronger (El Nino's decline). Spring is anyone's guess but I have a feeling tornado season is going to be a bad one. Does anyone remember "normal" weather anymore?!

I remember that, it snowed in a lot of places from western Nj and westward in october. That got pretty close to me and I still and all my plants outside so I was very lucky.
I got a pretty late frost (late november and the first freeze in early december). Last november (09) was really nice because every day made it to at least 50F and I think the max was around 72. October 09 was average and september was a little cooler as well as august and most of july. June of 09 was just crazy. Not a single day in June got to the average daytime high and only 2 or 3 made it to 80. May (09) wasnt that bad (a little cool) and probably a little warmer than June on average. April (09) was really good and there were a few 80s and 2 or 3 90s with the highest being 94F. And March (09) started out very very cold and ended up average. So that pretty much sums out most of 2009 by me. I would like at least 20 days in the 90s by me this summer which is pretty average, but I could handle 90s and humidity any time. I remember that on 2 days a few summers ago the high temperature was 101F and the low temperature was 80 (with high humidity too). I had never seen a low temperature of 80 by me until that night, but Im hoping to have a day like that that again this summer, my coconut palm would probably seem to grow overnight during a day like that.

This is what I think the east coast is in store for this spring.
March is probably going to be a little drier than it has been along the mid atlantic, but I still think there can be a storm almost every week with the active storm track. Definitely 40s for the mid atlantic major cities in early march and most of the precipitation will probably be rain, but I wouldnt be surprised to see some mix. Overall march should be around average. I think that its slowly going to warm up as April goes on and there will probably be some crazy weather in the month but I dont think that my plants will go outside any later or earlier than usual in April. And from may through the summer I think that we will at least have a better chance for warmer weather since the El nino should be done for and the North Atlantic Oscillation should start to turn neutral maybe postive which Im thinking means a strong bermuda high and warmer temps for our country with more tropical weather for the east coast.

Couple of things.

First we have a ton of snow to melt off:

Second we have high moisture levels in the soil under that ice glacier:

I believe the CFS (model below) uses moisture conditions as one factor in predicting future temps:

Here was its verification for last summer (not too bad, but it was made May 1st...so we have to wait to get a better idea):

Here was last summer, month by month. If you guys recall, we did have a nice HOT HUMID stretch in June...it just exploded (cold) after that. Last spring wasn't bad, once it got going (no big freezes).

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

My thoughts:
March finishes below normal (MN/IA/WI) area, but a warm up sometime after the 20th and maybe a big storm.

April finishes above normal, and dry (hopefully dry enough to really lose some of the soil moisture now present to the south).

May is wet?, below normal.

June/July/Aug is up in the air. I figure one of those months will finish ABOVE normal, with the other two right around normal? I can't see 3 cold summers in a row.

Most heat waves are caused by a few years of very dry conditions, something that just isn't going to happen anytime soon without a serious pattern shift.

great info and maps. Thanks DLL. I notice Jimhardy's claim verified for Iowa.

Coastal NJ is more similar to NYC weather than update NY and the map goes by state and regionally I think we more resemble NJ.

Great info,thanks for posting that!
I think if I am realistic I say below normal across the board until fall.
One of the spring months,closer normal/or above,I'll pick March because I am desperate.(-;
This would be a big shift(as mentioned),there is some serious snow to melt off/if the 15 forecast verifies even close we should be rid of 90%+ of our snow possibly before the end of the first week of March.
I would also like to predict a warmer than avg summer although I have NOTHING to base this on,except that other nature really shouldn't be that easy to predict,so I will say she surprises us!

Great responses guys!

Here is a link that might be useful: okcpalms

Very good graphs,thanks for posting.

Good luck!

I think anything 100F+ is unlikely here during the summer months. The last 2 summers we've had a tough time hitting 90F.

Also have to wonder how rainfall patterns will play out. Will it be wet? I really hope not. Its seems like the last 6 months have been all over the map with precip, with historic wet and very dry periods. I just hope we can get a little severe weather because last year it was nonexistent.

This current storm looks like it'll be a whopper. Moisture feed into the Northeast from south of Cuba! Storm expected to camp out in NYC area for the weekend and deliver gale force (if not stronger) winds to coastal areas. This one is actually expected to move up, then back DOWN to the southeast and slowly crawl up into New England. PS. I understand that Europe (anywhere from Spain to Ireland) is expecting a MAJOR, historic storm this weekend as well. Interesting winter!!--Now let's have SPRING!!!

We conceievably could suddenly have a warm Spring or return to hot summers.

Its unpredictable for the most part, or else the "global warming police" would have foresaw this.

You know, I just hope the nice hot summers come in my life time.

We have to get rid of the bug check mark that has been plauging the east since 2 years ago, or at least back it up to the west....In other words, the "troth" or "dip in the jet stream..

GREAT maps by the way, and a great thread! They should actually create a forum for this...I love seeing how our weather plays out and how it affects everyone's plants!

Maybe some day, when the Bermuda highs plague our region more than the dippy cold troth, I might be able to at least grow some kind of palm..

Pray for a quick spring and a warm summer here. At least the west can finally get a break from all the heat waves, fires and drought..when the troth lifts finally, it just might sink in the west, finally, more than a day or two at a time..Ps.

Our "thunderstorms" have also been lacking around here for years now, because of the constant oceanic breezes that plague us too, most of the summer now..One has to drive at least 30 miles west of me to get some good thunderstorms and while all we get is drizzle and fog, even in the middle of July! Gotta love those "easterly" winds.

We are in the midst of a HUGE storm, that is suppose to get stuck once again overhead because of the same blocking pattern, and refuse to let the sun out for days..:-(
Oh well, it could be snow..Our ground has been bare, while snow is on the ground where it is not suppose to be..lol

This is a weird storm Meyermike. Snowing as a VERY intense rate now. It was supposed to turn over to snow in the late afternoon/evening but it's been snowing since 7:00 AM. Much of the earlier stuff left a ton of slush and lakes of water (it started out as pouring rain last night). But for several hours now, the snow is falling harder and harder and sticking readily. Not windy yet but expect it to snow into Saturday or Sunday. Roads are HORRIBLE--there is NO traction between the slush, pools of water and now rapidly accumulating snows. Conditions seem to vary greatly over small distances. This has been the worst storm so far this season locally and it's only just begun. Funny, you would expect that it would be worse if it were freezing cold and everything iced up--but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Crazy is right...

We are getting 60 mile an hour winds up here in the North East, and once again, it is raining to beat the band up in the mountains too!

Thunderstorms and lightning for winter! Not in summer, but winter..lol

Keep up posted will ya..be careful down there and please, give your plants my condolences. I already have for mine since last June..lol

Mike

Update:

We had 2 thunderstorms and torrential downpours.

We lost a beautiful hotel due to a fire on the beach last night, a historic one, because the winds were gusting to 70 miles an hour at times..Store front windows blown out, and trees down all over my neighborhood. Power outages and still "no snow"...The rivers are about to flood over...

Mike..:-)

Meyermike, I'd be glad to share some of my snow with you. Have over 2 feet now and it's still snowing! First there was heavy rain, then mounds of slush, then two feet of snow on top of everything. I never remember it being this bad in terms of the depth of snow. NW New Jersey is expecting over 3 feet now. No one is out, everything is closed. Expect big time flooding in the entire Northeast/Mid-Atlantic as we move toward Spring. Temps are supposed to push into the mid 40's soon but there is a series of big storms waiting to slam into California en route to the-- East Coast!

Couple other things i'll add:

NAO ...keep an eye on this come spring, as you can see...strong correlation between cold and -NAO.

One thing not talked about, except in certain circles, and that is sunspots. We've been in a VERY LOW sunspot period (basically the lowest since 1913). That has turned around in the past 2 months or so, with a lot of new spots showing up lately (good!). Obviously its not a direct correlation (temps), but some sort of feedback mechanism is at play. Lots of research needs to be done here.

The Farmer's Almanac uses Sunspots in it's forecasts but it's often overlooked by many sources. Yes we are in a time with very little sunspot activity, seeing the high predicted values is an indication that the current cold trend (last 10-15 years) may be about to reverse. I believe sunspots play a major roll in our temperatures. Thanks for the graphs and info dadhaslonglegs.

Canada says the heat is coming: