Your natural gas and electricity prices are very low. I can come over buy some from you? :)

Here are some calculations based on the numbers you provided:

Price of 100.000 BTU of heat:

gas furnace @ $0.49/therm and 96% AFUE: $0.51

heat pump @ $0.097/KWh and 10.6 HSPF: $0.92

The unusually low gas price makes the furnace very economical for heating. Make sure that gas rate includes both service and delivery. The electric rate is also very good. I think that is typical for the Northwest, but also double check for the full rate.

Another consideration regarding a HP is that you might have
to increase the size of your electrical entrance. Does the price for the gas
furnace include venting/chimney liner?

Variable speed regardless of what’s installed would be a big
advantage.

SR

Years ago I lived across the Sound North West of Seattle in Silverdale in a home I had built for me.

Beautiful upscale home ~2000 Sq Ft - no A/C. Electric furnace. Between Hydro and Nuclear, electricity seemed virtually free.

If I read Mike's post correctly you'll never recover the cost $2800 upgrade cost unless utility costs flip flop dramatically. I'm kind of surprised that an 80% gas furnace is not in play.

Do you actually A/C for 175 hours?

The Seattle area was a wonderful place back in the day. I understand things have changed dramatically when we entered the computer age. :-) (I was the Submarine Repair Superintendent at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard.)

I don't call 10 cents/KWH cheap electricity but it is slightly less expensive than my rate in the SE. I would forget a high eff HP, stay with nat gas 2 stage high eff furnace and go with the XR14 single stage AC condenser with best matching Trane coil. Keep in mind, that furnace requires a good 2 stage thermostat like the XL824. Add a Trane Perfect Fit media cabinet.

Re the need to possibly increase electrical service, I don't understand that. When I went from A/C and oil heat to HP and oil heat there was no need to increase electrical service. (No strip heaters required.)

While the Seattle area may no longer be called cheap, slightly less expensive than the SE coupled with a quite moderate clime compared to much of the SE will result in much lower energy usage and cost.

During my three years in that area we used no A/C and had the (electric) heat on very infrequently. Again, this is across Puget Sound from the OP. Likely quite similar clime.

I still would be curious as to the payback on replacing an 80% gas furnace with a 96% gas furnace, including installation cost and equipment cost in that area.

Heat strips might require an electrical upgrade. I'd go with Tiger's recommendations and sleep very comfortably at night.

SR

He doesn't need heat strips - he has a gas furnace. I don't have heat strips - I have an oil furnace.

“Another consideration regarding a HP is that you might have
to increase the size of your electrical entrance.”

“Re the need to possibly increase electrical service, I
don't understand that.”

If heat strips are required, the electrical panel might have to be upgraded. If needed,
the existing electrical capacity might not be enough. I do understand the climate of the Pacific North West.

“… No need for a HP in a DF system”

It depends where the installation is geographically. Again,
I do understand the climate of the
Pacific North West.

If DF means ‘Dual Fuel’, that usually means a fossil fuel
and electricity, which exhibits its greatest efficiency when powering a heat
pump. Hybrid systems (gas & heat pump) can have some of the lowest operating
costs that can offset a higher installation cost – even in residential
applications; again, depending on geographic location.

IMPO

SR

Why recommend a heat pump/dual fuel when heating with gas is so inexpensive by comparison? Every BTW is going to cost 44% more and the wear on equipment is probably more costly on the heat pump than on the furnace.

Thanks for all the feedback everyone. I'm going to go with a gas furnace and maybe even have them quote xc95m upgrades and pair with a single stage ac.

“Why recommend a heat pump/dual fuel when heating with gas
is so inexpensive by comparison?”

It depends where you live. Some places have a dual energy
electrical rate for electricity. Where we live for example in US terms, at
temperatures above 10.4˚F electricity would cost 3.3¢/kW-USD. Using a HP with a
COP-3 means 1.1¢/kW-USD per kW of heat delivered into the home or about the
equivalent of paying about 32¢/Therm USD.

The rate of 3.3¢/kW-USD applies to ALL electrical
consumption ALL year long as long as the outdoor temperature is above 10.4˚F!

Is there anyone reading this that is paying about 3.3¢/kW-USD or
less most of the year?

Please post back.

SR

for the OP assuming his rates posted both for electric and nat gas are all inclusive and correct, I can't see how anyone can recommend a straight HP or a dual fuel system based on operating costs. Then there is also the factor of life of a quality furnace versus life of a HP. Also keep in mind a quality AC condenser for the OP's location properly maintained should have a longer average life simply because of hours used. And for the OP, I would not go with a communicating furnace like the XC95m unless you also pair with a communicating AC condenser. You have been quoted good pricing on the S9V2 Trane furnace. A fully communicating system both furnace, AC condenser, and thermostat control will make your purchase price jump considerably, overkill in my opinion. Totally unnecessary for where you live. Great equipment though. Make certain you are sized correctly!

good luck,

TD

Tiger,

No disagreement, however having lived in that part of the world in the past, his operating hours are very, very low compared to the real world.

In the OP he reports his cooling hours as 175 annually. I thought that seemed quite high and asked him how many hours of cooling he actually had used last year. No response.

Additionally, he said his existing gas furnace was not satisfactorily heating his home. I don't think there has been any mention of size/capacity. During my three years there we barely ran the furnace at all and had no A/C. This in a nice upscale home.

Bottom line, with the OP predicting VERY LOW annual operating costs I do not think wear and tear is a factor.

Saltidog,

I didn't mean to ignore your usage question. The cooling hours were an assumption. We were not in this home last year nor is there an existing ac anyway. It's an 80000 btu presently. None of the 5 bidders did a manual j but I'm going to get the low bidder to perform one before signing anything.

Tiger

thanks for the info on the modulating.

I apologize if I sounded as if I was chiding you. I only meant to emphasize that no sizing info had been provided as to the replacement for the old 80K furnace.

My point on the equipment is that it is generally accepted that a furnace has a longer lifetime than a HP.. add in the AC condenser in a mild climate means that a properly maintained condenser should have a longer life than say in a SE location where AC running hours will be much longer. I just don't see how anyone could justify a HP with the information that OP has provided.

TD

Tiger, in this case in this location, I'd go with your advice & recommendation 100%!

IMPO

SR