Framing lumber will likely be 6%-7% of our total build costs. So while the dollars may hurt, the overall cost is what counts.

A month will not do a thing to the lumber prices at the retail level to bring them down.

You also can't predict that you could start building and some other world/national incident could take place and further increase the costs for the house to get completed! At some point you just have to decide to build or not to build. If you decide to build, just make sure that you have a large cash reserve to finish the house in case of any crazy new incidents. We just finished building so we've been on that roller coaster ride!

Typically you cannot buy lumber without being ready to take possession. Quotes are not held now for more than 5 days. Your foundation would need to be in place to use it. Lumber yards won't store it.

We are looking at two projects presently, one will be ready to break ground in 6-8 weeks but we have 2-3 months of work prior to ordering lumber. Last summer retail prices dropped significantly but we cannot predict the future.

We expect lumber mill production to improve, demand to stay high but may be impacted by interest rates, Russia vs Ukraine, and the feds are considering returning to the lower tariff rates prior to November 2021 when they doubled them.

How's your crystal ball?

If that price rise puts you off from doing the project, then you may be under funded for the long haul real world of the total build. This is why you need a contingency fund. These days, it needs to be 25% of the estimated total. Plus that 20% minimum down payment. And another 20% for furnishings and finishing touches once it’s completed.

So we’re at the point where we need it. Our foundation is going to be poured this coming week. We had a $30k buffer above the initial lumber quote & we went $60k over it. We aren’t in a rush to build, which is why I’m curious what others are doing. I wish I had a crystal ball…

The question is, can your finances handle having your whole build cost twice as much?

Not likely to happen, but the cost of all materials and labor have increased.

On the bright side, after a Russian nuclear attack, nada.

People suggesting you aren’t ready financially because of the price increase aren’t necessarily right. Yes you need a healthy contingency budget but you also don’t want to blow that all on one line item. A 150% increase on lumber is a lot. Ours went up substantially when we built too but we absorbed the cost because it was within what we could handle and still have contingency for other things. You need to look at your entire budget and contingency and do the same thinking and then decide. I doubt it gets cheaper anytime soon.

@WestCoast Hopeful - Thank you. We can afford it financially, but we’d obviously rather save whatever money we can. A 150% increase is a big deal. We’ve decided to just bite the bullet and buy it at this price. We don’t want to risk it going up or staying the same after waiting months.

We learned pretty quickly that the only way we could save money was on what we could control. Finishing choices. So what flooring or tile or sinks etc.

We are under contract. Lumber quote this week was 61% higher than when we went under contract in early December. So yeah….we’re stuck and have to suck it up. Hoping housing prices stay robust so we can maybe recoup some of it when we sell the existing home.

I see it as I just lost a trip to Antarctica x 2. It really sucks.

Tariffs on Canadian softwood started in 2017 at 8.99%. Last November the Commerce Dept. raised them to 17.99%. Early this month(Feb.), they said they will complete a review by November and tariffs may be lowered to 11%+. It looks like lumber prices aren't going down this season.