Using NY statewide averages for the cost of fuel oil and electricity, and assuming a 80% AFUE for the existing system, I estimate it will be more economical to operate a cold climate heat pump if the temperature is above 5F (COP > 2.1) Be sure to check out the rebates available through the NYS Clean Heat Program https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Heat-Pump-Program. 

Thank you. It is the below 5 degrees that is worrying me. Although thankfully not many days that low.

We lived in Rochester NY for 5 years. We initially had a heatpump (from the moratorium days), not a "cold climate", but eventually switched to a gas furnace. Saved a little but not a lot.

Research ‘Air-to-Water’ Cold Climate heat pumps that will efficiently do everything you’re looking for and more.

https://enertechusa.com/products/air-source

Here’s another link:

https://www.spacepak.com/solstice-inverter-extreme

IMPO

SR

@fsq4cw,

Air-to-water heat pumps are intriguing. Any idea how the installed costs of an air-to-water heat pump system compare with a conventional air-source heat pump system?

I don’t have baseboard or radiators at the moment though. Just ductwork. I will read more on this though.

What's the advantage, what's the point, of an air to water heat pump , especially when A/C can be useful? Certainly could be more expensive to buy and install, which is usually a factor for fsq's recommendations.

The operating costs of air-to-water systems are advertised to be 40% less than conventional air-source heat pumps and they can supply domestic hot water. They also isolate the chemical refrigerant to the exterior of the home--eliminating the flammability hazard indoors. I expect the initial cost may be higher; that would need to be weighed against the savings in operating cost.

Your 40% claim immediately attracts my BS sensor. How could two different styles of equipment using the same technology but simply different "substances" to transfer the heat or coolness produced have such a wide disparity of operating costs? If such were the case in fact, the air to water systems would be the winner in the marketplace by a wide margin. That doesn't seem to be happening.

Other than doubting your claim as improbable on its face, I have no opinion and no experience. An online AI site (which may or may not be knowledgeable) disagrees with your claim:

"For most residential heating and cooling applications, an air-to-water heat pump does not inherently have lower operating costs than an air-to-air heat pump. In many homes, an air-to-air system is actually slightly less expensive to operate because it avoids an extra heat transfer step."

Elmer,

I don't sell air-to-water heat pumps and don't have a vested interest in making unfounded claims.

Water has a much higher heat capacity and a much higher thermal conductivity than air. Those properties make it a better heat transfer medium than air. If you'll click on the first link that fsq4cw provided, you'll find manufacturer's data comparing the performance of geothermal, air-to-water, and conventional 19 SEER air-source heat pumps at a variety of temperatures. At 52F, the COP indicated for the air-to-water heat pump is 5.5; the COP for the 19 SEER air-source heat pump is 4.0 That's a 40% difference in efficiency which is consistent with the manufacturer's claim of 40% lower operating cost. That's compelling, in my view.

Given the higher efficiency of air-to-water heat pumps and the likelihood of increasing utility rates, I think it's worth understanding how the installed cost of water-to-air heat pumps compares with conventional air-source heat pumps. That's the question I directed at fsq4cw.

That's sales material. Uncited at that.

The participant you referred to does not give objective information. Neither did you, for that matter, picking the widest spread in the source-less data that's graphed on the linked page.

In many areas, heat pumps are not the most cost effective way to provide heating. Neither the equipment, nor the operating costs, and often it's even worse when the two are combined for a fair comparison.

You may be in one of the areas where operating costs are competitive to natural gas but once low cost energy generation goes the way of the dinosaurs, the picture will be different in more areas.

Ground-source or water-source heat pumps don't require defrost cycles and are not affected by the low-ambient-temperature issues that affect air-source systems.

My neighbor has a WaterFurnace ground-source heat pump unit, which operates on a closed-loop, water-based geothermal method. Installed in March 2009 so now is 17yo. It never needs a defrost cycle. It has backup electric elements but the installers didn't originally enable them, which he wasn't aware until a problem occurred during the heating season several years ago and Emergency Heat mode didn't generate any heating. I remember him making a remark around that. I don't know if backup is now enabled or they left it disabled. He has a propane fireplace that has had more-frequent trouble that I've heard (with igniters or thermocouples, whichever, going bad) than the WaterFurnace has exhibited. He has the "hot water assist/desuperheating" add-on and sometimes turns his (electric) water heater off during seasonal times when the heat pump runs enough to supply all his (single-person household) heated water needs.

To be sure, the graphic is marketing material. However, Enertech, the manufacturer, provided test data for two air-to-water heat pump models at two different temperatures and cited the test methodology as AHRI 550/590. You can purchase a copy of the testing protocol from AHRI if you're interested. For comparison purposes, SpacePak advertises their systems (which have been on the market longer) as 30% more efficient than conventional air-source heat pumps. A 30% more efficient system is pretty compelling, in my opinion.

Generalizations are just that. The OP's interest is the potential replacement of a fuel oil boiler with a heat pump for a home located in upstate NY where neither natural gas nor propane are options. I calculate the operating break-even point at a COP of 2.1 based on the assumptions stated in my post above. That's achievable with either air-source or air-to-water heat pumps.

Charles Ross Homes

“Air-to-water heat pumps are intriguing. Any idea how the installed costs of an air-to-water heat pump system compare with a conventional air-source heat pump system?”

Installation costs are going to be higher. It’s a premium system but look what it does and the possibilities it opens. 1-heat pump with a hydronic distribution system (and small refrigerant circuit) that can do heating and cooling with any combination of water fan coil forced air, hydronic radiators of almost any water temperature combinations for cast iron, copper tube aluminum plate, in-slab radiant to bathroom hydronic towel rack or anything else you can dream of can be all done simultaneously with thermostatic mixing valves - and no short cycling. Zoning and controls can also be quite basic to very sophisticated.

A given volume of water can absorb almost 3500 times a much heat as the same volume of air, when both undergo the same temperature change.

Meaning:

3/4"tube = 20"x12" duct

3/4"tube = 18" ø duct

Water also affords the possibility of time of day thermal storage for Btu production when energy rates are low and efficiency is high (night time for cooling), as well as DHW, snow melt or pool heating. Thermal storage can be done with buffer tanks, concrete slabs or even combo indirectly heated DHW with hydraulic separation buffer tanks performing multi-functions. Air-to-Water HP’s can also be cascaded, staged and provide redundancy.

It’s an expensive install but costs are coming down with new generations of PEX type piping, battery operated hand tools (no open flames), press & push fittings, pipe insulation (Armaflex), pipe hanging methods, software, smarter more efficient circulators & zone valves.

The key is contracting with competent people that are keen to be on the bleeding edge of technology using the lasted design techniques and software. Properly designed, installed, with monitoring capabilities, these systems can and do provide amazing flexibility, zoning (including micro-zones) and comfort, with or without ductwork, depending on the design.

Grants and subsidies have played a big part in heat pump installation. Here in Quebec, Cold Climate Heat Pumps have become so popular that Hydro Quebec announced a suspension of grants for air-source. Even grants for geothermal have been curtailed. $100k subsides that I’ve seen in the pasted are now limited to $9k/ton, 6-ton max for geo. As Hydro still wants to export to the USNE as much power as possible so reducing pressure on the grid is a major focus.

Our neighbourhood has more drill rigs than ever installing in new mega homes and retro fits as well. It’s basically, ‘pay for air-source and get geothermal’. A 4-ton geo HP gets a $36k discount (up to $54k/6-tons) given to the contractor so the home owner has that amount deducted from their contract and only paying the difference, reducing the price before tax and the subsidy is not considered taxable income for the home owner - almost ‘free money’. It’s beautiful and pays for the drilling on a super efficient system - with no defrost cycles - ever!

Personally, I like to look at the total life-cycle costs of installation and ownership - as well as comfort. Had we installed an air-source HP at the time we installed our geothermal, we would probably be looking at installing our 3rd air-source system at about this time or in the not too distant future. The geothermal system cost at that time was less than a mid tier air-source system would cost today.

I am not trying to sell anyone here anything - do your own exhaustive research and come to your own conclusions. I only speak of my own personal and professional experience. If you think that a mini-split is still the best technology or value - go for it!

… And Elmer - You can be the Dr. Fauci of heat pumps if you’d like. I’d recommend shutting-up and pleading ‘The 5th’!

IMPO

SR

fsq4cw,

Geothermal here in coastal VA is pretty much dead due to the expiration of federal income tax credits. The air-to-water heat pumps might be an economical alternative. Thanks for the additional info!

" And Elmer - You can be the Dr. Fauci of heat pumps "

Your reference makes no sense to me. I'd love to be the Dr Fauci of anything.

I could nor would ever even dream of being as significant a human being as Dr Fauci. Considering all he's given for better lives and health of hundreds of millions of people over more than 50 years. I can't think of another person alive in my lifetime whose impact was greater.

" Geothermal here in coastal VA is pretty much dead due to the expiration of federal income tax credits. "

Not dead here because it was never alive. Dead on Arrival.

I know of a small number of instances of people installing ground source heat pumps either because 1)they have more money than they know what to do with and did so as a demonstration of using their wealth for "eco-superiority", often along with excessive solar panels for obscenely large houses, and 2)Houses in remote areas where using a ground source system was the only reasonable alternative and the owners could afford the high cost premium to avoid propane for heat.

Generally speaking, I don’t like subsidies for anything - especially HVAC because it brings a lot of poor contractors into the business that are gone with the subsidies, leaving the competent ones to struggle through good times and bad.

If there’s money on the table, sure I’ll take it but basically, if you want to do anything, leave me and everyone else out of it. That goes for HVAC, EV cars, solar panels and most everything else. If it can’t survive on its own let it die.

It’s quite a coincidence that wherever there’s subsidized PV solar panels and renewable energy that the cost of electricity to the rate payer is highest. Other than geothermal, it’s all dilute, expensive, intermittent garbage.

We need more nuclear & NG generated electricity!

IMPO

SR

" It’s quite a coincidence that wherever there’s subsidized PV solar panels and renewable energy that the cost of electricity to the rate payer is highest "

I think you're overgeneralizing and may be assuming that correlation and causation are the same. They're factually quite different. There can be reasons to subsidize these or other programs when the desired ends are outside of or not accomplishable by simple economics. That generalization covers many things democratic governments do globally.

I'm happy to find the opportunity to agree with some of your other comments, especially the one relating to electricity generation.

"I'd love to be the Dr Fauci of anything."

You're such a hoot Elmer, you already are the Dr. Fauci of many things here, in your own little way. He took credit for the work of others over his life attaching his name to the research. He was a political yes man, an administrator and thought he was a TV personality superstar. His ego was much larger than his abilities, and the breakthroughs, vaccines and research came from independent scientists around the world or those who just happened to have a jerk boss taking all the glory.

No confirmations are needed but it's well known that you have a habit to dispute and disagree with anything and everything that's uncontroversially factual and true. And to find blatantly false reasons why you think so, that fool no one but you.

As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel can find an acorn every now and then. Don't give up, there's hope for you.

I believe you're attacking my character instead of addressing my statement, with a direct insult of my intelligence. It's one of the little things you do best as a want-a-be Dr. fauci of everything.

I'm pointing out facts about a director of a government agency who was only an administrator who managed budgets and sign off on grants, but took credit for the work of others, and denied responsibility of his own irresponsible and criminal actions. Critiquing the egos, politics and actions of a public figures is not a character flaw, but shifting the goalposts of mine and million of others opinions about Fauci to a personal attack on me is a character flaw so many have already point out about you.

If you can’t separate my opinion, and the opinions of many millions of others and turn it into a personal attack on me, that's your issue. Even homicidal maniacs have a fan clubs,

and you seem to be the president of Fauci's fan club. I'm hoping some bright state AG brings up State charges against him, something the autopen can't pardon fauci's crimes from.

I would love to get more responses relating to my original post.

HU-319296541: I would love to get more responses relating to my original post.

Good luck with that on this forum section, LOL.

You've said that propane isn't an option. That's a curious comment - especially since most/all HVAC equipment installs are bespoke and almost anything is possible, but so be it. When you get new equipment, it becomes one of the tools the skilled HVAC pro uses to custom craft a system. Maybe the setting or layout is such that there's no room for a tank.

Sorry for the distraction. As dadoes implies, there are only a few who pass by this forum and comments tend to be about the same from one to another.

Good luck.

You don't just stop using an oil tank. It has to be properly and officially decommissioned. My guess is that in a residential structure where the tank is in the basement, that is going to mean it has to go.

I'd check on that before going much further down this rabbit hole.

For the propane item. We have a townhouse and the HOA make it difficult to put anything outside hence the limitation with the propane option.

The tank would be appropriately removed. It is currently under a staircase so we can get a company to take it out correctly but getting another one back in would not be possible.

Hope this helps

HU, I thought you were done. Beware of the fudd, even on this tread he's looking for an argument with anyone as he already did with everyone's comment. Then he accused me of doing exactly what he does, rich. He has no experience or knowledge in this field and just a arm chair want-to-be expert, just like Fauci.

back to your Question. Replacing an oil burning furnace to an electric heat pump is no different than replacing a Gas or propane furnace, with a few minor differences. All three involve pulling out the old equipment, but for an oil burner the removal or decommissioning of the oil tank and piping require permits and a licensed contractor to do this. It can't just sit there without being thoroughly cleaned through a decontamination process. This is highly regulated in NY, so leaving it in place is an option but strict rules must be followed.

About you present duct work that seems to be a concern. If you haven't had an issue with what you have now the only difference will be fuel type so most qualified contractors will be able to find an air handler to match. You do not need to zone your duct work, and I don't believe your duct work size will be an issue. But seeing what you got (through testing Static pressure and CFM readings) and finding the right configuration by your contractor could be an issue. Many want to push equipment they sell with the highest profit margin, and suggest equipment based on "good enough", this is always the case with miss matched equipment giving people problems.

Cold climate heat pumps will still work good for you with backup resistive heating elements if the temperature drops below 5 degrees, but a problem you may run into is power to run the heat pump, air handler and backup resistive heat strips. The power needed would certainly require additional electrical work that could add up to a hefty price tag. Keep this in mind.

Thank you. I think the winter electric bills could be large but interested to see how others have found this.

" with backup resistive heating elements if the temperature drops below 5 degrees, but a problem you may run into is power to run the heat pump, air handler and backup resistive heat strips "

Wiring and panels can be upgraded but after that's done, the cost of electrical resistence heating can be shockingly expensive.

HU-319, are you the first owner in your location to have to replace oil heating? What have other neighbors done. Is taking out the large tank and replacing it with two smaller ones connected together feasible?

I am not the first one. Everyone townhouse layout is different and unfortunately we got the short straw with ours. Zero room to even get 2 small ones in there. They literally built the staircase around the tank.

I have not done a fuel oil burner to air sourced heat pump conversion. However this is a common conversion and has been discussed on this forum several times.

Heating with fuel oil is becoming less popular each year especially in New York where new residential construction must be all electric. Given that an outdoor propane tank is not allowed, fuel oil is expensive ($5 a gallon?), and you can't replace the existing fuel oit tank, your best option is to replace the existing oil burner with an air source heat pump in my opinion.

If you are concerned about the back up heating resistance cost, then post your electric rate and what you think you will be paying for fuel oil this winter. The relative costs of each fuel and the heat pump can be calculated. You can also factor in you will no longer have to cost of the annual oil burner mainenace.

Cost of electricity is not negligible and is their only source of energy. If that’s an issue then the only sensible solution is as high efficiency a HP as they can install.

Pay for upper tier HP or pay more for electricity.

IMPO

SR

" The tank would be appropriately removed. It is currently under a staircase so we can get a company to take it out correctly but getting another one back in would not be possible."

You said your tank was 30 years old. It appears that the age of your tank was one of the reasons that you feel the need to get rid of the oil system.

I converted from Oil heat with A/C to Heat Pump with Oil backup about ten years ago. (At the same time I switched from electric hot water to hybrid hot hot water.

GREAT DECISION!

MY OIL TANK is now over fifty years old and has never had any issue.

" If that’s an issue then the only sensible solution is as high efficiency a HP as they can install.

Pay for upper tier HP or pay more for electricity."

How about running some simple numbers first to see if the payback is within the window the owner plans to stay at the location?

Or, are you saying they should just buy it on your say-so?

We are on NYSEG for electric. The rate on the last bill was 9 cents delivery charge and 10 cents service charge.

The calc is one a good HVAC contractor can do for you. Based on the home's heat loss features, how many BTUs need to be produced during the heating season, local temp weather stats, and costs of operation for different models/equipment as they vary by efficiency. It may sound daunting but it's a standard calc for someone in the business.

It's just like comparing the cost savings of two cars when one gets better gas mileage. When the annual operating cost savings comparing the less efficient to the more efficient unit is determined, the annual savings multiplied by the number of years of expected ownership will tell the money saved in operating cost from buying the more expensive and more efficient one. And then if the savings justifies the added cost of purchase at install time.

I realize that NY allows consumers to shop for electricity so rates can vary, but the quoted rate of 19 cents/kwh is much lower than the state average of $29.1 cents/kwh for the first four months of 2026. I encourage you to check to ensure you're using the correct cost/kwh or it will distort any conclusion based on energy cost savings.

The average New York state electricity rate I believe will be skewed by the very high rates charges by Con Edison in New York City, and the rates charged by PSE&G on Long Island. More than half the homes in New York State are served by these two suppliers. The rates quotes on the NYSEG web site are in the $0.19 per KWh. There is also a $19 per month service charge.

You can spend more money in a heat pump with a higher efficiency rating, but at a some point you may never see a return on your additional initial investment over the life of the equipment.

Thank you. Yes still at 19 cents on this most recent bill. I guess I am not looking at it from a ROI perspective but more that I have a 20 year old oil burner and a 30+ year old oil tank that cannot be replaced due to the location. I heard horror stories about $1,000 per month electric bills over the winter with the heat pumps and also not being warm enough in the winter but maybe they were not the cold climate ones.

Your only option for energy as stated is electricity. $1k/mo minus the cost of oil might not be so bad. You control the thermostat.

Your horror story is that 30+ year old oil tank. Does your insurance company confirm that based on their written acknowledgement of its age that you still have any insurance coverage at all? If you still have insurance - it might not be enough unless they cover you into the multi-millions of dollars. Insurance might only cover you 'up to' $250k, if that; you’re on the hook for the rest!

A major leak from that tank can render your condo more than worthless after your condo neighbours and association sue you for damages should there be a leak or rupture.

Between legal costs and ‘Environmental Cleanup’ costs, I hope you have money to burn and children that are not expecting much of any inheritance.

I have seen instances where oil tank owners were sued by property owners on the next street over with adjoining back yards for huge damages after core samples were drilled and tested.

Caveat Emptor

IMPO

SR

Cognito, ergo sum

and

In hoc signo vinces

Edit to add:

Scare mongering in the comments just above are baloney.

Here are some calculated costs of generating 100,000 BTUs of heat for fuel oil and a heat pump. Use these as a general guide.

Fuel oil: 80% AFUE @ $5.00 per gallon: $4.51

Heat pump: 2.5 COP @ $0.19 per KWh: $2.23

Heta pump: 3.0 COP @ $0.19 per KWh: $1.86

The COP (Coffecient of Performance) for an air sourced heat pump will vary with temperature. I picked two values for a mild and cold day. A water source heat pump will have a higher COP. You can use a simple ratio to change the cost if you get quotes for equipment with other values. If you did get a water soure heat pump you may also get domestic hot water heating. It is an additional savings compared to an electric hot water heater.

The high prices of fuel oil make the conversion an easy decision. You may also save on cooling costs depending on the SEER and EER rating of your current AC equipment.

Have you calculeate how much you spend to heat and cool your townhouse per year? That is a good place to start to determine how much additional money you should spend on high efficiency equipment.

" I guess I am not looking at it from a ROI perspective...." Nor should you, in my opinion. You're not going to celebrate how much money you saved on a system if you're uncomfortable in any season of the year.

Proper sizing calculations are particularly important since your heating season is long and you may get lengthy shoulder seasons when dehumidification can be a challenge. You should be eligible for rebates through the NYS Clean Heat program. Those are advertised to be as much as $11,000 depending on the type of home you have, it's age, and location.

" " I guess I am not looking at it from a ROI perspective...." Nor should you, in my opinion. You're not going to celebrate how much money you saved on a system if you're uncomfortable in any season of the year. "

Hold on here for a moment. Once having decided on what route to go (equipment-wise) which will generally involve one ROI assessment, and if dealing with a competent HVAC house that does proper load calcs, the buyer will likely be presented with several alternative pieces of equipment that each will provide the BTU output required.

At that point, another ROI calculation may be indicated. Base case - A. Enhancement - Choice B, $1500 more expensive but 5% more efficient. Then C, etc.

Which to choose? An ROI calc will indicate if the operating savings realized by spending more to acquire will pay for the higher acquisition cost. And. after how long?

You are all dancing around the elephant in the room.

What happens when it gets cold? Cold isn't single digits or zero. Cold is -15F, -20F. It is days with single digit highs.

That has always been the real question on this thread. Given the Fred Astaire act, I don't think anyone here knows the answer.

The answer to "what happens at -15F or -20F?" depends both on the specific heat pump selected and its capacity compared with the required heating capacity at that outdoor temperature. For either case, if the temperature is below the balance point temperature, supplemental heat will be required to meet the heating demand.

With regard to ROI, lots of folks fixate on return on investment or payback time at the expense of ensuring their system is properly matched to their needs-- including the desired comfort level. Do that first. If a variety of alternatives are proposed and you want to make the most economic choice, I suggest the correct economic analysis is to evaluate the return on the incremental investment for each alternative. That approach is referred to as return on incremental invested capital or ROIIC. With a sufficiently broad range of alternatives, you'll have a case study in the law of diminishing returns.

That is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Realistically I am looking at one option which is to replace oil heat with a ducted cold climate heat pump that will also do the AC. I cannot replace with oil. I am just really curious to hear from those who have done this in NY and what their electric bills look like over the winter and if any issues with warmth comfort levels. I am in the NYSEG area if it helps.

Your local utility provider may be a good source of technical information regarding conversion to a heat pump system in your area. I also suggest you check with NYSERDA because they're handing out rebate money for systems which replace fossil fuel alternatives.

Yes. NYSEG is offering $10k. Thank you