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OPEC and $60/barrel crude

21 years ago

OPEC unable to lower oil price


In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia on Tuesday underlined the cartel's inability to ease fuel costs, saying oil supplies would not rise despite plans to increase official output limits.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Riyadh had informed its customers of export allocations for July that mean keeping output steady at 9.5 million barrels a day.

Meeting on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering lifting production quotas by 500,000-barrels a day, 2 percent, to 28 million bpd.

But OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah conceded the move is little more than a political gesture to consumer countries worried oil prices are impeding world economic growth. "Just symbolic," was Sheikh Ahmad's assessment of the planned policy change.

U.S. crude eased 32 cents to $55.30 a barrel by 1600 GMT, after a $2 leap on Monday. Average prices for the year so far are near $51 a barrel, up $20 from the 2003 average.

Some traders say OPEC looks powerless to prevent prices challenging April's record above $58 a barrel as a resilient global economy, led by China and the United States, soaks up more oil in the second half of the year. "The bulls are going to look at OPEC and say they're almost maxed out on capacity when demand in the fourth quarter is for another million barrels a day on top of what they're producing now," said Nauman Barakat at brokers Refco in New York. "We may be heading towards $60."

OPEC output for 10 members with supply allocations is already close to the proposed new 28-million-bpd limit, so very little, if any, extra output is expected.

Naimi said Saudi, the only producer with spare capacity, already was meeting world crude demand. For the time being, he said, there was no call for more. Others in OPEC are at full stretch. "Everybody in OPEC is at full capacity, maybe Saudi Arabia has something left but it is heavy oil, so in practical physical terms we have nothing," said Libyan Energy Minister Fathi Bin Shatwan.

Here is a link that might be useful: OPEC unable to up production

Comments (17)

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    When gasoline hits $3/gal here we can expect to see all "protected" areas to be poked with holes. No shoreline, national park, or backyard will be spared. If the gov says it's ok to kick people out of their homes for a hotel resort then nothing appears off limits any longer...

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Another interesting related oil story is China's bid to takeover US oil company Unocal which has high oil reserves in Asia. China wants to insure control of energy to fuel their growing country while US politicians are screaming that the loss of an american oil company threatens our national security. I find it abit amusing that China is using hard dealing western takeover methods to outbest Chevron who is also bidding for Unocal. It is interesting too that Chevron would "restructure" the comnpany (layoffs) while China has promised to protect jobs.

    This is all part of a bigger trend of China using its financial resources to grow international. China has already outbid an American Company for Maytag and bought IBM's pc business to create the 3rd largest computer company after Dell and HP - with the help of American investment bankers and lawyers by the way.

    So now politicans are talking about protecting American interests and blocking Chinese takeover of American companies. So now we are reduced to (socialist) anti-marketplace protectionism to safeguard our national interests from a communist country that is using capitalist methods and bankers/lawyers to grow their business the american way. Oh the hypocrisy... So capitalism is good enough to export to Latin America, Iraq, Asia, and other countries but should not be used to disadvantage US interests?

    Here is a link that might be useful: Chinese Oil Giant in bid to Takeover US Corporation

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    What marvelous irony, KT. I hadn't grasped the many details about China's expansion into the world economy and hadn't been aware about these actual and impending acquisitions. In this generation, the Chinese economy might well surpass that of all major national economies, even the US one -- with the help of "American" bankers, investors, and businesses of course. Of course these "Americans" deal largely in flows of investment instruments already in the hands of other nations, especially those of Asia. Maybe those other Asian nations will come to skip the financial and marketing services of US-owned/based companies.

    The strategic implications are serious.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Yeah, lets off-shore a few investment jobs and CEO positions. Maybe the american worker would be better off with Chinese bosses - it can't get much worse. The other irony is that China is buying our companies with American money that we spend on Chinese goods at Walmart. This money used to be invested in Treasurey Bonds to support our huge budget deficit, but I guess american IOU's are not as good an investment as international businesses. So if we block Chinese investment in US firms, where will the Chinese spend our money - in Europe or Asia? Will they decide the dollar is not a great medium and that we are not a good investment anymore? Incredible twists here will unfold in many unexpected ways, I think.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    If China acquires Unocal, what will this mean for the US installations in Afghanistan, Unocal being the prime contender in the trans-Afghanistan pipeline? Will the US military protect Chinese pipeline interests?

    In searching for the latest on trans-Afghanistan pipeline bidding, I came across this blog which has a link to a good history of Unocal's interest in Afghanistan, and also a note about Henry Kissinger being both a former advisor to Unocal and serving on the international board of CNOOC.

    Here is a link that might be useful: blog

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Your link isn't valid, according to my server.

    When the Afghanistan war started, I tried to introduce into discussion a bit of history about US interests in pipelines and related in the region. In the end the Taliban rejected proposed contracts for the construction. Less than a year later -- you know the rest of story.

    I received a lot of heat on this forum for proposing that oil and gas interests sought to tie up the resources in SC Asia centered on the Caspian basin. So now I ask again, why do we have permanent bases scattered throughout the region?

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Sorry the link doesn't work. Here's one of the articles linked on the blog.

    "Last Updated: Wednesday, 9 March, 2005, 16:23 GMT

    China's global hunt for oil
    By Mary Hennock
    BBC News business reporter

    China's craving for oil to drive its industrial boom and, to a lesser extent, satisfy its love affair with the motorcar, has helped to push up global crude oil prices.

    In 2003, China raced past Japan to become the world's second biggest consumer of petroleum products after the US.

    In 2004, its thirst grew by 15%, while its output only rose 2%.

    China's oil demand 1980-2004

    "They have a problem," says Philip Andrews-Speed, an energy analyst at Dundee University and former BP China executive.

    China accounted for 40% of the growth in oil demand over the last four years, says the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    To slake its seemingly insatiable thirst, Chinese oil firms are trying to squeeze more out of their wells using smarter technology and they are rumoured to be considering buying parts of Western oil majors.

    China has also embarked on a frenzy of oil hunting diplomacy. China's rulers seldom go anywhere these days without talking oil, while at home in the last year they have unrolled the red carpet in Beijing to dignitaries from all 11 countries in the Opec cartel.

    They got results.

    China clinched deals to develop fields in Iran.

    The red flag came out too, as China opted for a bit of anti-imperialist bonding. Cuba agreed to let China explore its coastal oil fields.

    And eyebrows were raised in Washington when left-wing Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez offered Chinese firms operating rights to mature oil fields.

    As the world's fifth biggest oil exporter, Venezuela is vitally important to the US, though relations between the White House and President Chavez are strained.

    Venezuela's output has been poor since a political tussle led to the sacking of senior managers at national oil group Petroleos de Venezuela.

    President Chavez may hope Chinese engineers can help "revive Venezuela's oil fields on the cheap", says Leo Drollas, Deputy Director of the UK-based Centre for Global Energy Studies.

    'Aggressive quest'

    None of this has gone unnoticed by Western oil majors, and it risks getting up some powerful US noses.


    CHINA'S THIRST FOR OIL
    Chinese worker in oil refinery
    2005 - 7.2 million barrels a day
    2004 - 6.6 million barrels a day
    2005 demand seen up 9%
    2004 demand up 15%
    43% of oil used by industry
    34% used by cars
    Sources: US EIA, IEA

    James Lilley, ex-US ambassador to Beijing, has said "the Chinese are on an aggressive quest to increase their supply of oil all around the world", according to remarks quoted on industry website Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections.

    ChevronTexaco chief Dave O'Reilly has warned of a "bidding war for Middle Eastern oil between east and west".

    In December Asian industrialised powers swallowed their rivalries to invite Opec oil ministers to India in an attempt - albeit unsuccessful so far - to renegotiate long-term supply contracts to run for up to five years, says Mr Drollas.

    China has also been "building strategic relationships" with states "along the sea lanes from the Middle East", according to Alexander's, quoting a briefing paper written for US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

    Pumping up technology

    China is not fussy where its oil comes from, whether Kazakhstan, Sudan or Angola. Its main concern is having enough of it, and the quest is driven from the very top.

    An oil worker at Cuba's Santa Cruz del Norte field
    Cuba has agreed to let China's Sinopec look for oil there

    China has plenty of oil of its own, but the onshore fields in particular are old and running dry. Offshore, the situation is rosier.

    Technologically, China's big four oil groups lag behind Western majors, particularly at deep sea drilling - unfortunate, given the future importance of offshore finds.

    But government backing could help.

    "They're less liable to put projects through the same rigorous commercial evaluation that multinationals would do," says Mr Andrews-Speed.

    They are also "making great strides" with advanced seismic imaging techniques that can pinpoint oil reservoirs to save time and money, says Jeffrey Logan, China researcher at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Acquisition trail?

    Internationally, a strategy has been mooted whereby Chinese oil firms would be buying chunks of Western ones .

    China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has asked its bankers to price up a takeover of mid-sized US oil company Unocal, which drills in Indonesia and Thailand.

    A Unocal truck at a US storage depot
    The next frontier? Unocal may get a takeover offer.

    This raises two questions: Could China's main offshore explorer afford to buy Unocal, ranked ninth among US oil producers? And do Chinese firms have the management skills to run such an acquisition?

    The answer to both is 'Maybe'.

    Running a Chinese oil company is a highly political business, and successful oil mandarins tend to have their eye on plum government jobs.

    "Their attention is divided, let's say," is how one analyst puts it.

    But CNOOC bosses have impressed. They talk fluent industry jargon, wooed Henry Kissinger onto their advisory board, and have a $4.3bn petrochemical project with Shell that is China's biggest joint venture investment.

    If CNOOC does bid, it is expected to keep Unocal's Asian assets and sell everything else right away. CNOOC is cash rich, but faces a lot of calls on its money to meet development plans.

    Although high oil prices have boosted profits, any shopping trip is likely to prove expensive in such a tight market. Bargains are non-existent, and China's thirst is perhaps the main reason."
    (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4191683.stm)

    Here's a link to the brief history of Unocal's intest in the trans-Afghanistan pipeline.

    Here is a link that might be useful: pipeline

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Wow, is it ever tangled. With the multi-national flavor of these businesses (Kissinger on a Chinese oil company board!), its hard to even know who the players really are and what forces are at work in our Gov't pushing and pulling in various ways to influence "hands-off" or import retaliation or free-market WTO jurisdiction or what. It seems with the money to be made and the multi-national character of the corporations, the allegiances these days are no longer a manner of simply identifying American interests versus Chinese interests.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    KT, this has been true for a decade or more, and increasingly so. Why do you think I've been posting so many items about globalization and its components over the past 5+ years? Transnational corporations and, for a better word, cabals have acquire supra-national rights and powers undreamt by deposts and tyrants of the past. That is not to say that they are evil but that they are not mindful of most other values other than profit and opportunity to expand influence. Allegiance is a meaningless concept in their environment.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Yeah, I've been responding to those posts too, but what really twists my mind right now is that in this contest all those international influences are coming into play on a global scale for power like never before. I can't clearly sort out the allegiance of the players. Its like the sci-fi movie where the villagers get trampled by the two giant lizards battling with each other oblivious to the ant people below. We are irrelevant to this multi-national contest - its not even clearly about China versus the US. They are vehicles for profit.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Lizards battling each other is good imagery to describe this situation, esp. the appearance of Kissinger on CNOOC's board. For me, it's mind boggling.

    Anyway, the trans-Afghanistan pipeline is still in the planning stages. Unocal, on their website claim to have divested themselves of any interest in 1998. I can't tell whether they are among the consortium mentioned in this article or not.

    Here is a link that might be useful: business news

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    I've been following the CNOOC story which has been good for more than a few laughs. This story in todays Washington Post adds another twist to the already tangled web. I still haven't read any major news source that mentions Kissinger, only obscure references to advisory board members. No one brings up Condi Rice's previous involvement with Chevron either.

    .....

    Bush Adviser Helped Law Firm Land Job Lobbying for CNOOC

    By Jonathan Weisman
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Tuesday, July 12, 2005; Page D01

    President Bush's top independent intelligence adviser met last winter with investment bankers in China to help secure his law firm's role in lobbying for a state-run Chinese energy firm and its bid for the U.S. oil company Unocal Corp., according to his law firm, Akin Gump.

    The involvement of James C. Langdon Jr., chairman of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board and a major Bush fundraiser, underscores the tangled Washington connections beneath CNOOC Ltd.'s bid. Both CNOOC and its rival for Unocal, Chevron Corp., have enlisted lobbyists and public relations professionals with deep ties to the Bush White House and Republican leaders in Congress. Wayne L. Berman, a principal lobbyist for Chevron, is a Bush "Ranger," having raised at least $200,000 for the president's campaign. His wife, Lea, is the White House social secretary.
    .....

    Here is a link that might be useful: washington post

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    It's an interesting development that the economics of oil has become "recognized" in Congressional hearings as a national security issue. The security implications have been there for decades and were swept under the rug because it is inconvenient for it to be known by the public that so many politicans and ex-Gov't officials sit on international boards and profit from oil policy and have a big influence on US foreign policy. The Saudi's practically own the last two generations of ex-officals (and their relatives) of both Repub and Demo administrations especially ex-Sr. Bushies. I think the Carlise Group is basically an Arab payolla machine for the ex-DC crowd.

    Now that global control for oil and corporate competition has reached the level that competing high-level US flunkies are at each other's throats for control over big profits it will be interesting to see how much they will rock the money boat by outing each other as threats to national security. Is there any actual US face or interest in these corporations anymore? Do any of these people have an ounce of concern for policy that safeguards their country or have they long ago sold their souls to the highest corporate bidder (as I suspect). If oil is recognized as too delicate an issue to be left to the "free" market, maybe we just disqualify all Americans who profit internationally from oil as too conflicted by foreign profit to have any role in national security issues or foreign policy.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    When will cries of conspiracy theory yield to demands for greater accountibility of government officials and agencies. When transnational entities (NOT the UN) control foreign and domestic government policies, we are looking into the abyss. That abyss is a vision of the US as the hammer used to keep the world obedient to the dicta of transnationals.

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    The CNOOC bid has been withdrawn. CNOOC cites political hurdles set up in Washington as the reason for their withdrawal from the bidding. Among the political roadblocks was a provision in the Energy Bill.
    "House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo, R-Calif., an author of the energy-bill provision, hailed CNOOC's decision to withdraw its bid.

    "I believe in a competitive, free market, global economy. CNOOC's communist government ownership and promise of virtually interest-free loans are not consistent with these principles," Pombo said, in a written statement. "As such, CNOOC's withdrawal from this bidding process is good news for the free market, the American consumer and U.S. national security.""

    (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B44DC4B57
    -129A-4145-8BE3-6E5B2A90BE53%7D&siteid=google)

    Coincidentally, Pombo and two others involved in political obfuscation received money from Chevron just after CNOOC announced it's bid. Isn't the free market wonderful?
    (http://www.adipec.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=News.Newsmain&newsId=322)

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Althea, it is a free market, free to market as we see fit. :)

  • 21 years ago
    last modified: 11 years ago

    Thank-you Senator Pombo for saving us from the evils of capitalism. Even though American jobs can be offshored to Asia to add profit and incorporation can be offshored to save on US taxes, ownership of companies and CEO entitlements will stay in our cozy little american club. We can now go back to watching oil companies experiencing their most profitable year in decades, buying off sleazey politicans to reap even greater billion dollar tax giveaways in the Energy Bill.

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