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padawg_gw

Timing is everything!

16 years ago

Basic question: Is this a good time to build? Options are wait until a year before retirement (2012) or start the process right away. Construction site is 150 miles away from where we live now so obviously there would be logistical issues to work out for work and school for the next couple of years. I just can not shake this feeling that right now, before interest rates go up, before inflation rears it's ugly head (if it does), and while builders are hungry for work, that this moment in time may be the time to start before we get priced out of the ability to make something happen. I just can't wrap my mind around the logistics, a year to build, how to commute to work, how to keep youngest daughter in high school for two more years (although she has announced she would love to move and attend a smaller school). Thoughts ya'll?

Comments (9)

  • 16 years ago

    Boy, that's a good question. We're in the same boat, somewhat, although the only delay for us is getting our house on the market and selling it. I can't tell if it would be advantageous to sell now, even though prices are extremely low, and try to take advantage of low prices on building materials, or wait, and hope materials don't go up faster than house prices. There is some evidence that building materials have already started going back up in some parts of the country. The scariest thing is that the 'experts' can't seem to agree whether or not the worst is behind us so far as the economy goes. If it is, then build now, because prices will surely go up, especially in areas that were not particularly hard-hit by the economy. But if we get a double-dip recession, as some think, you'll lose money on the house in the short term.

    150 miles is a long way to commute! I know I couldn't do it. You really don't want to change jobs or put your job at risk now with retirement so close. Anything else is going to cost you money. I know people that have kept an apartment in the town where they work, and then commute home for the weekend, but that's a considerable expense. Would you save enough by building now to more than off-set renting an apartment that long? I don't think anybody has the answer, unfortunately. I'd be inclined to wait until a year before you were ready. Meanwhile, live like you're unemployed, cutting costs like crazy. Bank the extra money, and try to make frugality a lifestyle. It can be fun, as a challenge, and it's a lot easier when you know you can stop being 'poor' anytime you want to. Since we've lost so much equity on our current home, we are being very frugal so we can put money away towards our build. Rather than being miserable, we take pride in how many meals we can stretch the leftovers for!

  • 16 years ago

    I would NEVER commute, the closer the better. If you are not there as often as you can be which in my opinion would be everyday you are going to be sorry. You can explain things a hundred times and think they understand and then it gets built and they say "thats what you told me!" and your ready to pull your hair out. Then they want to have you pay for a redo! Communication is key and being 150 miles away would be a nightmare for me. I don't know about the rest of the guys out there but I haven't seen the prices in the Chicago area go down all that much. Lumber yes but thats about it. Lots of people out of work but when I get quotes I honestly don't see a reflection of that.

    I also would never start my build if I needed the money from my current unsold house to subsidize it. WAY to much for MY nerves. Also, I know I've already lost money on my house. If I had to sell it by the time I'm done I'm figuring $100,000 down so I pray I can be in it for a very long time!! Just my two cents and we know how far two cents goes today :)

  • 16 years ago

    We are doing 30 winding, twisty, hilly miles away, and it is a royal pain. Like GG53 says, you need to be there virtually every day. I can't imagine a 300 mile round trip oversight situation. Well, actually I can, and it would be a nightmare.

    And I don't care how good your contractor is, you need to be there. Period.

  • 16 years ago

    Thanks GG53, Creek side and flgargoyle. The one issue (thankfully) we don't have to worry about is selling a house, did that 18 months ago. That process allowed us to purchase our property to build this house. Interestingly, the one thing I never did consider was keeping an eye on the contractor. I agree, that should be a concern. Even if we were able to cross over that speedbump without any damage, would there be a benefit to building now or waiting. Guess I'm impatient, can't wait to retire and can't wait to begin that new chapter in our new location, but to what expense? flgargoyle, great advice! Maybe what I need to do is to go forward with the house plans (we have preliminary drawings now), finish up the details on the plan, put it out for bid so that we have some concrete numbers to work with. At that point we can sit down and consider our options and what would make the most sense.

  • 16 years ago

    Everything else being equal, building now or waiting is a crap shoot. Some predict the economy will tank again, some say it won't. Material prices respond to world markets and market manipulation, not just the US economy. It's impossible to say where prices will be in two years.

    Right now, locally, there seems to be a little bit of a resurgence in building. Since a lot of builders and suppliers either went under or pulled in their horns, it's sort of a faux recovery. I have no doubt that when those that pulled their horns in reemerge, there will be a surplus of builders once again.

    Suppliers are a different story. Those will take a longer time to reestablish themselves. In the meantime, prices are not nearly as low as they were a few months ago, and concrete keeps going up and up. Eventually, those trends will stabilize or reverse.

    In other words, you pays your money, and you takes your chances, just like on the old midway.

  • 16 years ago

    jmo, take this time to plan & research and really evaluate what you think your needs might be at that time.

    For one thing, while it can be done, I wouldn't want to be that far away. I am two miles away and I go out to the site sometimes 3 or 4 times. Now it's possible that I do that because I am close and I can, but at the very least I think of things overnight I need to discuss first thing. And then I like to see progress at the end of the day. And I usually go out at lunch time to see how it's going and to discuss any issues. And it was not uncommon in the beginning of each new phase (new sub contractor) to get a call asking me to come out.

    Another reason for me to wait, would be a child still in high school. I wouldn't want to uproot them. I know kids are resilient and circumstances forces it sometimes, but if I had the choice, I wouldn't want to do it. Aside from the academic side of things, my son would never forgive me for taking him from the friends he has had his entire life. But you know your daughter on that one. She may be just fine with it.

    If you don't have your plans yet, you have many months ahead of you just getting your design in order. So even if you started now, you won't be taking advantage of these prices anyways, it will be the prices in 6 months to a year, 1.5 years or more. You have much planning and research ahead of you, so it is still going to be a crap shoot regardless.

    We are not retired yet, but I thought we would be building our empty nester home. But early in our design process, it became clear that we wont be empty nesters for probably another 10 years, so that really changed things. (One daughter moved back with her young son while she goes back to college, one son a Sophmore in high school, college ahead of him, and depending on his major and job prospects after college, he may be here for awhile)

    So if it were me, I would use this time to really soul-search, research, plan, etc. This has become my full time job, so I can't imagine how long it would have taken me if I worked also. So much is available online, so that makes it a bit easier. But for the first several months, I hardly slept, for researching every aspect online. And then it is one decision right after another.

    So I would become a sponge and just absorb as much as you can and start getting your ideas, and wants and needs and start translating that into a design and fine tune and start working towards your goal. Lots can happen between now and then, and you can modify accordingly.

  • 16 years ago

    I'm getting bids for a new roof and one of the bidders said shingle prices are down due to the slowdown. Given your situation, your lifestyle would be so disrupted if you started to build now.

  • 16 years ago

    The builder we are going with really wanted the job, so he went back to his subs and asked for an across the board reduction of 5%. He says they have a team approach so its better for everyone to make a little less and get the job than for none of them to have the work. He's also gotten reductions from many suppliers. He said that he won't be able to do that for the lumber since that is such a low profit margin there's no where to move.

  • 16 years ago

    I tend to believe you wont find the time and price to build much better than right now for a while. This excludes your comfort and ability to pay for it now or your ability to watch over the project. As stated above you need to be working on the design process NOW. You can spend 2-10 months or more on the design process. Then you have to price it. If you are bidding it to several builders you have to compare them and work through that. The more complete the documents and specs the more accurate and complete numbers you will have and should have fewer mistakes and changes etc. Spend the time, money and effort up front to research heavily, to get good... plans, advice, builder, estimates, and scheduled. You may not have an issue with traveling as the time you have left till retirement is closer than you think when building. This Im sure of..if you are not prepared with the plans and estimates you wont have to worry about your schedule you wont be done when you retire anyway. As for daughter you said she is ok with transferring anyway. Thats simply a personal issue for you. Just dont let your timing for building be held up by not being prepared to start whenever the time is right for you.