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Suburban Flight

18 years ago

There is an interesting article on CNN about the changes in the ways Americans will be living in the future. Here is an excerpt:

" Recent market research indicates that up to 40 percent of households surveyed in selected metropolitan areas want to live in walkable urban areas, said Leinberger. The desire is also substantiated by real estate prices for urban residential space, which are 40 to 200 percent higher than in traditional suburban neighborhoods -- this price variation can be found both in cities and small communities equipped with walkable infrastructure, he said.

The result is an oversupply of depreciating suburban housing and a pent-up demand for walkable urban space, which is unlikely to be met for a number of years. That's mainly, according to Leinberger, because the built environment changes very slowly; and also because governmental policies and zoning laws are largely prohibitive to the construction of complicated high-density developments.

But as the market catches up to the demand for more mixed use communities, the United States could see a notable structural transformation in the way its population lives -- Arthur C. Nelson, director of Virginia Tech's Metropolitan Institute, estimates, for example, that half of the real-estate development built by 2025 will not have existed in 2000.

Yet Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

"What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe," said Nelson. "There will probably be 10 people living in one house."

I'm curious if you agree or disagree, and if this information would have changed your decision to build where you did.

The rest of the article can be found here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/suburb.city/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Comments (8)

  • 18 years ago

    ROFL! There goes my dreams for a new cosmetic line...

  • 18 years ago

    How embarrassing that fashion editors got male cosmetics wrong, thank goodness all the scientists got it right about flying cars and running out of oil.

  • 18 years ago

    ROFL Oruboris....you crack me up! Thanks for the smile!

  • 18 years ago

    oruboris -- Tell me you don't write for a living! That's just perfect.

  • 18 years ago

    Yeah, there have been many books written about the decline of suburbia. My friends here in Atlanta who live in-town frequently point to new office buildings, new retail centers and new homes and boast about how fast the City of Atlanta is growing. "People are moving back into town in huge numbers" they will repeat now and again. And yes, there are signs of construction and renewal everywhere.

    But, sooner or later, fiction is laid waste by facts and here they are:

    The Atlanta MSA population in 1995 was 3.6 million; today it is over 5 million. So where did the growth occur? The City of Atlanta increased from a population of 403,000 in 1995 to 425,000 in 2005, an increase of 5.4%. Meanwhile, the entire MSA increased 32%.

    In-towners will also talk about the "fact" that people "Outside the Perimeter" or OTP, drive into Atlanta to take advantage of world-class shopping. Just not borne out by facts. Total retail sales for the Atlanta MSA in 2005 were $74 million; City of Atlanta sales were 10% of that total.

    I have no idea whether the suburbs will decline or not. People have historically been attracted to good housing, excellent schools, recreational opportunities, etc. I don't think human nature will change anytime soon. If there is a decline in suburbia, I don't see folks flocking en masse into the CBD. I think most will move to exurbia and small towns.

  • 18 years ago

    I have to agree with the above posters. I love the way downtown in our area has revitalized in the past 10 years. Entertainment, restaurants and condo-style housing all seem to be developing quickly. We love to visit to see shows, shop and eat dinner.

    However, as a mom of two little boys, we are making the move to what I guess is exurbia from a midtown location. I NEVER though this was a choice we would make, but as I watched my boys begin to grow and want to play outside, it seemed like the best choice for our family. Now, when we visit our "almost complete home", I'm overjoyed that they don't even WANT to come in the house. It warms my heart to see them running and playing and I can't wait for the first time I get to use the outdoor shower to hose them off after a long day of outdoor exploration and exertion.

  • 18 years ago

    Groups like hadd.com and hobb.org as well as others also predicted that shoddily built huge houses would become multi-family apartments, or tear downs. If the houses are well built they will probably survive and go thru the same transformations that old Victorian era big houses have. But the shoddy ones where developers cut so many corners start deteriorating quickly and will probably be demolished. If they're not close to mass transit and job opportunities even the poor, on govt assistance, will be unable to live in them. The middle class is already having problems paying for the commute, and heating and cooling these big houses. I think this era will be looked back on with disgust for the short-sightedness, and waste of materials, energy, money, and space.

    One thing that might save the residents of these houses in the 'burbs, (along with a lot of gas!), is if more employers let people work from home. Population has not declined world wide so I don't think everyone can just move into the city. Somehow people will still have to live out there, but driving to and from the city is becoming too expensive, and too obvious we can't keep using this much fuel. I don't see wages going up to meet the expense, either. The weird thing is a lot of people could be working from home but I don't think their employers trust them! The price of gas may force some to give it a try and see that as long as the work's getting done they really don't need to know what their employee is wearing while doing it.