It does look like it is a basal break from the graft but without removing all the dirt it is hard to tell. You can wait for the new shoot to mature then remove some of the dirt and look, better to not do it now while it is very tender and can break easily, or you can do it now but be very gentle and careful.

I wouldn't dig -- just wait a week or two then compare the foliage and thorn patterns. There's no hurry.

Yes, WAIT. Personally, I would wait for the foliage, and if I was still not sure, I would wait for it to bloom. Then you could tell for sure.

Jackie

Looks like a good basal from above the graft from what I can see. Agree with waiting.

Thanks for the replies. I will wait and see then!