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Current 7-Day Qualitative Precipitation Forecast. Are you buying it?

10 years ago

Okay, so the amount of rain forecasted on last week's QPF totally failed to materialize at our house, though some parts of our county got lots of rain.

This week's QPF shows some amazing rain totals, especially for anyone who missed out last time, but are you buying what they're selling? (I'm grinning as I playfully ask that question.)

I so want for us to get the rain they're forecasting, and I totally hope that the rain stops falling over Louisiana and comes here instead.

Here it is:


7-Day QPF

Comments (52)

  • 10 years ago

    I'm hoping! But not counting on any rain. The noon news was only showing a 40% chance on the days when rain is possible.

  • 10 years ago

    It's like shopping, you can like it without buying it. LOL

  • 10 years ago

    Texaslawnfight, I hope you get the rain. We live in extreme southcentral OK (across the river from Gainesville, TX) but DH and DS both commute to and from Dallas to work, so I wonder if I can hope for rain to fall while they are working, but thenhope for it to not fall while they are on the highways commuting home?

    Hazel, I really want to believe. Last time, though, they had us at 90% and it still missed us on that 90% day. I think our highest day in the current 7-day forecast is 60%. It needs to rain! Turner Falls is burning and evacuated for at least the second time this summer. Some good heavy rain would put out that wildfire, which I believe has burned at least 1,200 acres of a ranch (where the fire began) adjacent to the park and parkland combined, so far. I believed last time, so it is hard to believe this time, if you know what I mean. I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed for the second week in a row.

    Carol, Ha ha! Our local TV mets are drinking the NWS koolaid and think the rain is going to make it to us. Well, for the sake of folks in Louisiana and southeast TX, I hope it does. I've been watching the rain slowly move north all day and some parts of south TX already have had some minor flooding---nothing like what is going on in Louisiana though. It still is a long way from us.

    Our ponds are dry, but the creek still has a little water in it, so at least the wildlife aren't all over the yard at night looking for food, but something is lurking too close to the house during the daylight hours because the cats won't even go outside at all, or if they do, they stay a little while, don't leave the porch, and come back inside the next time I open the door. Normally I could blame that behavior on the heat, but since we cooled down, it has to be some sort of varmint is scaring them. Maybe a good rain would at least drive the varmints away while the rain is falling.

    Dawn


  • 10 years ago

    Oh no Dawn, I don't like your varmints. Hope it is just a bobcat. Things are changing here as well and it seems way to early, but I have had a ton of hummingbirds this week and saw geese flying over yesterday. I haven't had much time to work outdoors this week, but hope to get more done tomorrow since we have rain in our forecast for the remainder of the week. Not great chances, but maybe we will at least get rain on one of those days.

  • 10 years ago

    Sorry, I'll believe it when it's falling out of the sky. If Texaslawnfight is missing out it shows how spotty it's going to be. I still keep the faith but with a touch of disbelief.

    The only rain they show for the city is when the cold front comes through and we all know how well that went last time.

  • 10 years ago

    .23 inches today err well this morning. Although it's spotty as various stations widely vary. It still seems to be hanging south east of us. Forecast for next several hours is does show any changes.

  • 10 years ago

    I had to laugh at your assessment, SoonerGrandmom!

    Carol

  • 10 years ago

    I'll believe it when I see it. lol

  • 10 years ago

    Dawn.....I understand your (and other's) apprehension in believing the QPF. I work for the NWS, and I am a bit apprehensive, too. We've been burned quite a bit by the mostly inaccurate QPFs coming from WPC. In general, the computer models have been overestimating the spatial extent of the rainfall this summer.


    This coming week may be a little different, though. The ingredients will be in place for some parts of Oklahoma getting quite a bit of rain. A strong cold front (for August) is going to barrel through the state Friday into Saturday morning. There should be rain across a lot of the state ahead of and along the front. It will make it southward into Texas, and hang out for a few days. Then it gets interesting. By Monday night or Tuesday, a weak upper trough in the Desert Southwest and an upper ridge over the Northern Gulf will put Oklahoma right in the middle of a Southwest Upper Flow regime. This is typically a wet pattern for us, although it's a little unusual for it to happen in August. That stalled front in Texas will slowly head north Tuesday and Wednesday. Until it gets north of us, we should see several rounds of rain. Then, we may get another cold front to move back in from the north by late next week, bringing another chance of rain.


    Of course, saying how much rain will fall or exactly where it will fall is impossible right now (or even right before it happens, usually. LOL). But don't give up on this event. A lot of ingredients will be in place for significant rain.


    Lee


  • 10 years ago

    Carol, I hope it is just a bobcat, but we've had a thin, old coyote lurking not only in the woods but also in the front yard a lot this year. I'm pretty sure he's after the chickens (and occasionally getting one) but I'm sure he would find a cat tasty if he could catch one. We haven't lost a cat to a coyote, as far as I know, in about 5 or 6 years, but when a cat just disappears and doesn't come home, the possibility that a coyote might have gotten it is always at the top of my list.

    I saw my first batch of ducks flying south this week, haven't seen any geese yet (I usually don't see them until Septembe down here) and the hummingbird population remains large, so I know they are continuing to migrate through.

    I'm not expecting this week to be much better for us than last week. Exactly the same things are happening----what few showers have occurred have been nowhere near us, the amount forecast for us by NOAA keeps dropping on the QPF map, the NWS and local forecasters keep dropping our rain chance percantage daily now as the "event" approaches, and they keep raising our forecast daytime high (which seems to me to be their way of conceding we are unlikely to have rain-cooled air). I am not very hopeful we'll get any rain, and I'm glad I didn't spend a lot more time and money watering the garden this week to get it to hang on until the rain comes, since it seems like the rain won't find us in any appreciable amount.

    We haven't mowed this week and won't have to mow this week, which I guess is one advantage of going so long without rain. The hungry deer are showing up in the yard and around the garden now, so I guess they're running out of fresh green stuff to browse in the woodlands and pastures. I've been leaving the back garden gate open for them at night, but apparently they aren't interested in eating dried, brown cornstalks or weeds.

    Hi Lee, Long time no see! It is nice to see you here. I am totally not believing the QPF at all because I've been so burned by it so much lately, but I will say that the last time it forecasted these types of totals, our Mesonet station at Burneyville got that much rain (over 3")---but it missed us completely, so they had minor flash flooding and we had (and still have) big old ugly cracks in the ground. Friends of ours who live west of Burneyville also missed out on that rain and got barely enough moisture to hold down the dust, so our county definitely is a mixure of haves and have-nots this last few weeks in terms of rainfall.

    Thanks for the great explanation of the weather that's coming, and I'll be keeping my fingers and toes crossed and hoping the rain manages to find us and fall on our poor dry property. Maybe I need to go outside and wash the truck? Maybe I could make it rain by dragging out the extension ladder and washing all the windows on our two-story house? Maybe I could make it rain by watering the yard and garden all day? Hope, I'll just sit indoors and wish and hope and remind myself that you told me not to give up!

    Have a great day and, if rain falls here, I'll come back and say so, and when I do, I hope I'm telling y'all that I did a happy dance in the rain and that it is raining cats and dogs. I certainly hope I won't be sitting here complaining yet again that it rained all around us and yet missed us again.

    Most of my garden is still alive, largely thanks to the cooler weather. At least we have had cooler temperatures even if the rain missed us and if it misses us again.

    I watch the radar from TX like a hawk to see if anything is moving our way. So far this morning, there hasn't been anything that has gotten me really wound up and excited.

    Dawn

  • 10 years ago

    I'm glad you got some monster rainfall....and I bet it will produce more monster squash. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade....so in your case, maybe you'll need to make squashade. : )

    I have been watching the radar like a crazy, rain-obsessed woman (which is a valid description of someone who's been waiting for rain since July 9th) ever since 6 a.m. All day long, we have had low clouds, varying temperatures, varying RH values, etc. All day long, the rain on the radar begins to just vanish from the radar once it hits the last TX counties to our south---Cooke and Montague. I just keep waiting for there to be one rainstorm that can hold together, cross the Red River and drop some raindrops on us. I am......still waiting.

    It feels like rain. It looks like rain. It seems like rain is coming our way. It truly does. I am trying to be hopeful and yet, not get my hopes too high. Last week, we endured a couple of days of intermittent thunder and lightning that sometimes lasted for hours and hours, and still we got no rain. It was a crushing blow to have it so close to us, and yet not get any of it. So even if it feels like rain is coming, if you can really feel it and smell it and almost taste it....that is not enough. We learned that last week. It still has to actually rain. I won't believe it is raining until I can stand out there in it and feel the raindrops falling on me. Even then, with the ways things have been for the last 4 or 5 weeks, I won't believe the rain is going to last. Well, unless the rain begins to carry me downstream. Then I'll believe in it and I'll believe it is real.

  • 10 years ago

    Gosh, Dawn, go wash your car! It is sooo close.

  • 10 years ago

    It's too late. It just melts away before it reaches the river. If it cannot reach the river, it can't make it to me. Story of my life since moving here, lol. I just need to stop hoping for rain and get on with non-gardening activities. The phrase that keeps running through my mind is this: "C'mon, you know it doesn't rain here in summer." (grin) For the last 5 (almost six) weeks at our house, that's been true.

    I just need to accept the things I cannot change.

    What have I heard from my DH and DS today? Anything? Any text messages from work saying "hi, how is it going?" Nope. All I've gotten is queries like this "Has it rained?" Clearly they are as obsessed as I am with the rain we're not getting.

  • 10 years ago

    I feel like this week is turning into last week all over again. Since no rain hit us yesterday, or really even came close, I've got that sinking feeling that rain isn't going to find us today either. Each subsequent run of the QPF shows us with less rainfall than the previous run. To quote the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again". I am just so immensely disappointed.

  • 10 years ago

    We got some rain. Not quite enough rain to make anyone here lose their mind and go outside and run and jump and dance in the rain, but it was actual wet stuff falling from the sky. So far, about 0.20". If the radar can be trusted, more is headed our way. We have a lot of low clouds now, but nothing is falling from them. I wish I could stand above the clouds and wring the rain out of them.

  • 10 years ago

    I have a good feeling you're gonna get quite a bit more by this time next week.


  • 10 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    Looks like a pretty good storm coming through on you, Dawn! Hope you're getting more. I'm going to have to water tonight if things don't do something here.

  • 10 years ago

    Lee, I hope so. We desperatately need it. It is raining again right now. I'd go out and dance in the rain, but the chickens and turkeys already have that covered. After 39 days of dust bathing, they are getting a rain shower today and loving every minute of it. This rainfall just might save my garden, which has been struggling a lot lately. Hopefully we will get enough rain to help the big cracks in the ground to start to close up a little bit.

    I've been watching the rainfall and flood advisories and warnings in Texas and admit to being green with envy over the 4.5" that has fallen over parts of Young County, TX. I'd love to get half that amount.

    I hope everyone gets rain today and over the next few days.

    If this keeps up, we'll have to mow the once-brown (well, still pretty brown but it will green up again) bermuda grass lawn next week, and I don't even remember the last time we mowed, but guess it probably was about a month ago.

    Dawn

  • 10 years ago

    Yea! I guess our big chance for rain is tonight, but I've got some plants that can't wait that long. I'll do some minimal watering and hope for the best.

  • 10 years ago

    Rain continues to move north, y'all! I hope it gets to all of you. We have had a slow steady rain for hours now, but it is beginning to pick up and rain a bit harder and I just heard thunder. I'd love to have a good hard thunderstorm dump some heavier rain on us. The dogs had been inside for 4 or 5 hours and needed to go out for a few minutes, so I just mopped up muddy paw prints off the kitchen floor for the first time in at least 5 weeks. In an odd way, it is nice to have mud to mop up instead of dust to sweep up.

    Amy, I had containers I had to water first thing this morning or they were going to wilt beyond the point of no return. After yesterday's rain disappointment, I figured we were in for another disappointing day and I just wanted to get the watering overwith. I watered before I even opened up the chicken coops to let the birds out. While I was watering, Chris sent me a text on his way home from work to see if I needed for him to pick up anything for us while he was at the store getting stuff he needed. I asked him to bring back a thunderstorm with 2-3" of rain embedded in it. He told me he'd do his best. About 2 minutes after he pulled into the driveway, the first rain shower hit. He, of course, immediately took credit for bringing the rain home. He still is taking credit for it, but as long as we get rain, I don't care who gets the credit.

    Ironically, Tim (who has been hoping for rain just as much as I have), has been stuck in the airport in Louisville, KY, because the aircraft they'll be flying upon from Lousiville to D-FW was stuck on the ground in Dallas because of the rain! They finally boarded the plane a few minutes ago, several hours later than scheduled. Now, I just hope D-FW doesn't have a groundstop in place when they finally arrive, or they'll be circling the airport for a while. It just figures that after weeks with no rain, we'd get heavy rain on a day he's trying to travel. Still, I'd rather have rain than not have rain.

    I don't know if this will save the summer melons and summer squash plants as they are pretty wilted and pretty far gone, but I think it will save most of the flowers, all of the herbs, the tomatoes winter squash and peppers, and.....because I saw a lot of old southern pea pods (Burkina de Faso) on the ground after I pulled out the plants (the pods must have been early pods that got buried under the rampant vines and never were harvested), I bet I have new emerging southern pea plants within a week. If that happens, I'll let them stay there and we'll see how much they produce before it gets too cool.

    I wonder if this huge change in the weather pattern means an early fall? It isn't the rain making me feel that way, but rather the total change in the temperatures, which I initially thought was temporary but seems fairly long-lasting. I SO do not want to see the temperatures go back into the upper 90s and 100s again this month or next month or the one after that. I also have seen tons of hummingbirds coming through on their journey south, undoubtedly pushed to migrate a bit early by the suddenly cooler temperatures, and ducks flew overhead flying south earlier this week. All of these signs make an early autumn seem likely. I don't mean early freezing weather, just the earlier arrival of mild weather. It would be nice because July and the first half of August were brutal.

    They've issue a Flood Advisory for southern Cooke and Denton counties to my south. I hope we get as much rain as they've apparently gotten.

    Dawn

  • 10 years ago

    The storm is moving more eastward and keeping most of the rain in TX, but we're up to an inch now. The garden and I are content, but hoping the rain continues on for a while longer....hopefully for a few more hours at least.

  • 10 years ago

    Good to see ya here, Lee.

    I wish for everyone to receive just the right amount of rain. Can't hurt to try!

  • 10 years ago

    Our rain has pretty much stopped, and really, it stopped an hour or two ago with just tiny sporadic sprinkles since then. It still is raining hard in the D-FW metro, so Tim's plane from Louisville to DFW was diverted to OKC because they were running out of fuel to circle at DFW. He's so close to home, and yet so far away. Now he is sitting in a plane on the tarmac at OKC and his car is sitting at DFW. I have a feeling I've enjoyed the rainy day more than he has. They're hoping to eventually make it to a gate so they can deplane and walk around for a while, but if many planes diverted to OKC, that may not be possible.

    Our rain was slow and steady most of the time so it soaked in pretty well, making it the right kind of rain! The air is cool and I can see blue sky to our NW. The cold front that is coming through overnight ought to bring a lot of us a chance at rain (if you haven't had any yet) or more rain (if you have had some already).

  • 10 years ago

    Still waiting. Dawn, glad you finally got some rain. Yes nice and slow!!!!?

    If Tim is in OKC he is safe from any rain. Ha ha

  • 10 years ago

    Glad you finally got some rain, Dawn and everyone else who has been waiting forever!

    I hope it comes our way tonight. It certainly is chilly. We rushed home so the poor dogs could be walked before dark and I actually had to put on a long sleeved shirt. It's August! I'm not complaining. I would like a rain, though. I'm simply not going to have time to water until Monday. We have a band thing tomorrow morning and early afternoon, and then a wedding in Guthrie tomorrow night.

    I want a week at home so badly. I have so much to do between garden clean up and furniture painting and other things. Maybe, just maybe my kitchen will be complete at the end of next week. But then, I need to find all my kitchen stuff in the shop and remove it back in. Ugh. How will I ever get it all done? Sorry, I'm whining. Still so excited about the cooler air.


  • 10 years ago

    DH works for an airline here. When Tulsa people get stranded in Dallas, they get together and rent a car to come home. I don't know how anxious Tim is to get home, but it's a possibility. Just want him to get home safely. Pace yourself Hazel. Back to school is stressful. Of course, na na na, I don't have to do it any more. (after 4 kids, I deserve it). Hope you get rain. You, too, Stockergal. As Bon said, we should all get just the right amount. They were back peddling on my chances on the 6 pm news. I'm not holding my breath. At least it's cooler.

  • 10 years ago

    My son got stuck in Atlanta during the computer glitch. No fun at all.

  • 10 years ago

    We were out and about yesterday and it was glorious sunshine with a nice cool breeze in a way familiar to Oklahoma. I feel refreshed!

    And there's a storm overhead now in these wee hours. Looks like Dawn might gonna get some good rain. Some of S. Oklahoma right now.

    The cooler weather, yesterday, made my palms itch for a shovel.

    bon

  • 10 years ago

    So thankful for the rain we got very early this morning, even it was only another half inch. At least today the sun probably won't dry it out immediately. Thursday we had a brief shower burst and maybe 20 minutes' of rain, but it evaporated quickly. I'm definitely hoping for some more this week, because I don't have much time to water with school starting.

    Carol

  • 10 years ago

    We got very little, I can't see the gauge well enough to see it, which means there's very little. I know it rained, I saw it. Probably the equivalent of my 20 second quickie hand watering system, so shouldn't have to water today, but it won't last long. South Tulsa got much more than I did.

  • 10 years ago

    We had heavier rain around 4 or 5 a.m. for a few minutes, and then light rain between about 7 and 9 a.m. So far, for this week, we are up to 1.6". I am deliriously happy but also greedy and wanting more. The heavier rain stayed to our south this morning, where parts of North Texas have had flash flooding and such.

    I was hoping more of the overnight rainfall in OK would make it to Central and NE OK, but it didn't seem inclined to cooperate. Oh well, there's lots of days where at least there's a chance of rain over the next week.

    The cooler temperatures still are the bomb! When are we ever this cool in mid- to late-August? I hope the cooler air sticks around, with or without (but preferably with) rainfall.

  • 10 years ago

    Still waiting!!! Not a drop but the cooler weather is nice.

  • 10 years ago

    Tim was wishing his car was in OKC and not in Dallas. They never got off the plane at OKC and finally arrived at DFW around 9 pm or so. Couldn't get off the plane because there was no gate agent available. lol. Sat on the plane and waited a while. They waited longer for luggage. Then drove home in the rain. By the time he got home, it was roughly 12 hours since he had arrived at the airport in Louisville. It was a long travel day. He didn't get to see the rain, but he walked through puddles in the yard coming from the detached garage to the house. He finally got to see and enjoy the rain today. His only real comment was about how humid it was! Non-gardeners like him just don't appreciate rain the way we gardeners do. Y'all keep hanging in there. It has to rain sooner or later. Since we were so very dry, I doubt this rain will do much to close up the cracks in the ground, but the plants already look a bit greener. I'm just hoping the typical August heat doesn't return.

  • 10 years ago

    Yeah, I am looking at the 10 day forecast for Durant, and only one of the days coming up is marked as "sunny", the rest have partial clouds in them, max temp of 92F? This is still August, I will take what I can, even if we do not get rain (which we should get at least once this week).

  • 10 years ago

    Predicted low here tonight is 58!!!

  • 10 years ago

    The weather here is beautiful. Cool with a light wind. Turned the air off yesterday, last night sleeping was nice and cool. I will see how long I can go before I have to turn the AC back on. I can go longer than my husband so we will see. Waiting patiently for some rain this week, going to water today and tomorrow and hope that will bring in some rain.

    it is getting seriously dry. Holding on getting the Alfalfa and winter wheat planted. Hoping we get a rain soon or we will have to plant dry and that is never a good thing.

  • 10 years ago

    kfrinkle, I am feeling less positive about the rainfall in this week's forecast. For us, it just seems to be sort of fading away. I'm trying not to be greedy, but I always want more rain in August than we get. At least the rain we just got, combined with cooler temperatures, ought to keep the garden in decent shape for a couple more weeks and maybe we'll get more rain either in late August or early September. The break in the temperatures still is a huge relief, but we're quite a bit warmer today than we have been over the last week or so. I hope that is not a bad sign.

    Amy, That's amazing for August! We have dipped into the 60s but I don't think we have any chance of hitting the 50s. That will be such a great overnight low, and then tomorrow morning ought to start out so pleasant.

    Stockergal, We were seriously dry before it finally rained here. I was all out of hope and enthusiasm. I feel somewhat revived by the rain that finally fell here, but the rain did not, by any stretch of the imagination, change much around here, except the garden is a tiny bit greener. We still are having grass fires here in this county, and some of the areas where we've had fires got the 3+" a couple of weeks ago and the 2+" this past week. Despite the rain that has fallen, everything still is much too dry. I hate to think of what it would be like if this past week's rain had missed us.

    I hope y'all get rain soon.

    Dawn

  • 10 years ago

    So thrilled we got over an inch Friday night. I slept through it but my garden is so happy. Cucumbers and squash really showed off growing 6 inches in 2 days.

  • 10 years ago

    I did my best to get it to rain in OKC. I watered all day saturday starting at 7a.m.! no dice.

  • 10 years ago

    Lisa, The lack of rainfall calls for desperate measures. Next time rain is forecast, in order to "bring it on", may I suggest the following: wash your car and leave it sitting in the driveway, wash the exterior side of all your house's windows, paint your house trim, or schedule an outdoor party/cookout. Or, wash your fire engine (just kidding, I know you don't have a fire engine) and leave it parked outside the station as you decorate it and prepare to participate in a parade in town. That makes it rain every time.

    I'm sorry to hear that the rain keeps missing you. I know what a frustrating experience that is. I'm so grateful we finally got rain, but I have not forgotten the hot, dry, miserable 39 days prior to that when we couldn't get rain to fall on us no matter what.

    As Jay always says, every day that rain doesn't fall just brings you one day closer to the day when you finally will get rain.


    Dawn

  • 10 years ago

    I hope those of you around OKC are getting rain. I'm direction challeged as to where exactly you are.

  • 10 years ago

    We are getting sprinkles, Amy!

  • 10 years ago

    I've gotten sprinkles, not enough to bring me inside. Every time I look at our forecast my chances have decreased. I wish they wouldn't tease us like that.

  • 10 years ago

    Well...we have more than sprinkles now! It's a full blown rain with thunder and everything, Amy. Maybe it will be your turn next! We are very far north Norman. So far north that it's Moore schools.

  • 10 years ago

    Yay! So glad y'all are getting rain. We had intermittent sprinkles yesterday and I didn't think it added up to much, but by the end of the day we had new rainfall totalling 0.15" in the rain gauge, giving us a total for the past week of 1.80". Every little bit helps.

  • 10 years ago

    We just got a decent cloud burst, maybe 5 minutes. I won't have to water tonight, just under 1/4 inch.

  • 10 years ago

    We got about 1/4" here in SW OKC.

  • 10 years ago

    We had some decent rain here in Durant yesterday, have not made it to my rain gauge yet, but it was, in my estimation, enough rain to not have to water until at least Thursday! I will take what I can get mid-to-late August, this last week has been wonderful.

  • 10 years ago

    The past week was wonderful in Love County, but then yesterday the heat came back! I was so disappointed. Our high temperature only went to 93 but that was a lot hotter than we had been on all the rainy or trying-to-be-rainy days. Our heat index hit 102. Today has been just about as hot and miserable so far. I knew it was extremely unlikely that the break in the heat would hold through the end of August, but I sure was hoping it would last. One bonus is that there's rain lilies in bloom all over, so that's nice to see.

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