The stock markets can go to zero, but how low can they go before moving back up? It's been a while since my trading days but checking a few charts and indicators I'd say 30K on the Dow before a bounce, then much lower and closer to zero than the previous high.
Margin Debt has nearly doubled since the 2020 covid sell off and Margin Debt started to unwind around Nov 2021 which coincides with the markets topping, and with the margin debt still unwinding 30K would of been my target as a normal retrace. This pull back had nothing to do with the Ukrainian war and seen well in advance with money flow indicators suggesting money was flowing out of equities since mid 2021 as a leading indicator.
But a few black swans have changed the playing field. If I was playing today I would of flipped my positions late 2021 with a target price of 30K on the Dow as a safe bet but not now. Now I don't care because the Dow is going to 23K, then 18K, 12.5K and may a stop at 7K.
I wish I was dreaming and knew nothing but 33 trillion dollars in stock market value is about to evaporate.
Q