Any long range forecasts have to be taken with a grain of salt. Weather forecasters often can't get the weather right for the next day or even today. They say we are going to have a milder than normal fall, but that doesn't mean that where one lives will not get a frosty night or two. Frankly I wouldn't trust any forecaster to give me a 100% acurate forecast--all they can give you is an educated guess

I go here: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html, but, like oilpainter, i would say just use it as a guideline. They're not always right!

Here is a link that might be useful: Seasonal forecasts

I don't think any forecast would have thought our area in CA would have an average July temp of 75* here in "sunny CA"!( normally 85-90)
If I had known I wouldn't see the sun for more than an hour or 2 for several weeks, I wouldn't have bothered with tomatoes, eggplants, peppers etc!!!!!!
Thankfully our late Aug/Sept temps are warming back to near normal temps and I'm getting some late peppers and EP.Most of the tomatoes are toast, though.

My local weatherman can't get it right for 24 hours, let alone a full season.

But I know what to expect in my area. It is always something different, so consistently that "different" is a very safe bet, and you can absolutely plan on it.

The local NWS office here in SE Michigan always puts out this really nice outlook at the start of every season. I have found it to be really reliable in the "big picture" for the past five or six years since I found out about it. If the guy says that fall will be warm and dry, you can pretty much count on it.

Unfortunately, it doesn't come out far enough in advance to be really useful as a long-range planning guide for gardening -- by the time the summer one comes out in early June, I am already pretty much committed to what I am planting for the year.

Here is a link that might be useful: SE Michigan seasonal outlook for Fall 2010

Thanks all - lots of good info and thoughts.

Particularly liked the SE michigan link - thanks so much.

Interestingly, it seems that a drier warmer fall is predicted - by that the effects on the first frost are not effected.

My take home note is that protection on the first big cold may yield well thereafter - just the sort of info I sought.

Of course - no guarantees... :)

i use daily met' forecasts and even they can't be relied upon, outside of that if a get wet when i go outside then it is raining or if get blown over it is windy chuckle.

my opinion long rangers don't factor in the effects of missing forests into their calculations, probably can't is the why?

the best hedge against dry spells a water tank of sufficient capacity to provide for the gardens needs at least.

len

Here is a link that might be useful: lens garden page