I have been thinking the same thing, but didn't want to say it out loud until maybe July. [g] I have been seeing a few shiny web lines around but so far, no real damage to any leaves and a lot of them are already out. But, maybe they will still come out in May and manage to make a mess.

My ornamental pear tree leaves have some small holes and I've spotted a couple of tiny caterpillars. I sprayed with a spinosad spray, and we contracted with a tree company to do the big oaks in our yard. We didn't spray last year and there were TONS of caterpillars, and given the number of moths flying around in the fall I'm worried that it will be bad this year. Truthfully, though, I wonder how much good the spraying will do unless everyone in the neighborhood does it as well.

Northeast Nursery has an info. page under the heading "Winter Moth: Will it be Worse This Year?", although they don't really answer that question.

Here is a link that might be useful: Winter Moth Caterpillar

Well, it looks like we spoke too soon. I have winter moth caterpillars all over the yard. It's odd two of my large Maples have less damage then previous years, but the shrubs under the trees are getting the worst of it. I have two black plastic compost bins under one Maple and today, there were tons of caterpillars crawling up the side. The timing seems off to me only because last year, the Grackles showed up as soon as the winter moths appeared and were eating them out of the trees. The Grackles have already been here and gone for the most part. Very odd.

That's too bad, prairiemoon. I've definitely noticed them, and they're munching on some trees and shrubs, but around us it still doesn't seem as bad as last year. I couldn't even go in my backyard last year without getting caterpillars on me, and I could hear them chewing, and their droppings were all over everything. So far I'd say I'm seeing about 50% of what I saw last year. We did some limited spraying and that has helped save the roses and cherry tree. But I know there's still lots of May left, and I'm probably jinxing myself for saying anything...