times are tough for everyone. who/how many will survive depends on how long before things turn around and where you are. here builders have as much work as they want(though it may be more remodeling/repairs than new builds). in other areas of teh country they can't find a job building a dog house.

Many builders in my area are in trouble. One of the biggest has dozens and dozens of unsold spec houses in his many developments around the state. He is selling them for much less than cost, just trying to keep his head above water. He bought over 1000 acres behind my property to develop and has since stripped the lumber off it in an attempt to not lose the property. He is not alone....many local builders are in the same shape. People are remodeling, not building.

I interviewed over 20 builders in the two yrs before I built last yr. Over half are now out of business, including two that I really liked and nearly signed with. One scared me away because he was still building spec houses and wanted to use my deposit to "float" a spec house. I ran!

My best advice right now is if you really want to build, get an Amish builder if you can. I used a very well known, very much in demand Amish builder and have never been happier. They are "cash on the barrel" kind of businessmen and you never have to worry about them not paying suppliers and the suppliers putting liens on your house. Our builder has plenty of work right now and even has a waiting list. He never advertizes - it's all word of mouth referrals and he never takes on more than he can handle. We built a 3400 sq ft Cratsman farmhouse with high end finishes. Took him and his crews (they only use subs for heating and A/C, and electrical) 92 days from start to finish. His crews work sunrise to sunset 6 days a week and we had no weather delays at all. they are the hardest working men I've ever seen and there is no wasting of materials.

if they're in your area, I highly recommend an Amish builder. They're not cheap, but they give great quality work and they're honest.

I started a similar thread a few weeks ago...Don't see the sense in building right now with existing home so cheap.

Depends on the area, of course. But its said that Bozeman MT [I'm near there] has enough new houses to last 6 years. Hard to beleive many builders can survive in that sort of environment.

If we assume that nationally we've built about 20% more homes than we need, roughly 20% of the builders are superfluous.

A high percentage of the builders we talked to have spec homes being foreclosed on now. Builders who contracted with folks for their personal homes are going to be fine and weather this "storm". Builders who built spec houses (some to sell on their own, some for "wealthy" folks looking to make profits) are probably already going down the drain.

i see trucks buzzing around our neighborhood every day. we're building, and i notice some others building in our area as well. new construction has definitely slowed, but many are also taking this opportunity to finish their basements or create tricked out media rooms. a good friend is having their 3000 sq foot basement done while our builder has four other crews out for media rooms, hobby rooms an the like. i suppose it depends on the location, but it seems those who previously had problems finding people to work are now reveling in the availability of contractors.
i know our builder was in trouble before we signed our contract as we saw he was in default of his mortgage and his house was in danger of foreclosure. a drive-by verified this as i spotted a "for sale" sign on his lawn. he had also recently rented out his vacation home to long term tenants.
no one can be sure who will make it out alive, but i'm happy to know that since our job as started, there is no longer a "for sale" sign resting on our GC's lawn.