heat pump against what? we need more information.

It depends on what source of heat you have at the moment and its efficiency, and the cost of whatever the source is compared to your electric cost.

Im considering a heat pump with furnace or a furnace only 95% eff. With gas prices going down im not sure the 1,400 additional is worth it. I cant figure out how much im going to save to do the math.

Heat pumps are great if you use oil or LP because of cost of the fuel. If you use natural gas. Theres not really any savings there. Really no return in you investment. I have over 21 years in the HVAC field.

Natural gas prices have already plummeted. Theyre on their way up now. Either way, gas has always been the most economical heat source.

The post that natural gas has always been the most economical heat source is not true.

It depends on the area of the country in which you live, your electric/natural gas rates and the type of equipment you have.

I live in the Pacific Northwest (Olympia, Wash.)and have a single stage Trane XL14i heat pump with a 90% natural gas furnace as backup. I have a nearly 3,000 sq. foot home in a subdivision of custom homes of similar size. Apart from the gentleman down the street who uses radiant floor heat, my bills are the lowest.

I ran my heat pump down to 20 degrees last year. Below that is when the furnace kicked in. I used a total of 73 therms of gas ALL YEAR. I also cook with gas but have an electric hot water tank. My winter heating bills averaged between $80 a month (during light heating season) to $200 a month LOWER than my neighbors.

I tweaked the IAQ thermostat so that the furnace didn't kick on at the factory preset 40 degrees.

My electric rate delivered price (all taxes and fees) averaged out to 9.1 cents a KWH. My therm rate was $1.34 (with all taxes and fees based on 100 therms of useage).

Even with the new gas rate reduction of 22 cents a therm, my heat pump will still be the most economical for me to use down to 25 degrees. I will now have the furnace kick on at that temperature.

Your climate, rates, equipment and how you set your thermostat will make all the difference in what is most economical.

one thing is for sure....the heat you get from gas will feel warmer than that of the heat pump....if all things are equal...go with the gas.

Natural gas heat does "feel" warmer. The point is to get your home warm at a constant temp. What is your delivered price for natural gas (total therms/cubic feet used divided by total bill for natural gas including taxes, etc.)? Example: 80 therms divided by $67.42 equals $1.18 per therm.

Do the same with your electric rates. KWH used divided by total cost of electricity to get a real KWH delivered price. Post the figures and I'll run them on my Trane spread sheet for my unit and I'll give you a price breakdown at various temps for a 12 hours of heating.
That will at least tell you what it is for my furnace/HP combo.

Also need to know if you are loking at an 80 or 90% furnace.