I would look back to see if and when there was a change that would start or increase moisture migrating from behind paint. An increase in humidity level within room doesn't cause that type peel but is typical of moisture being drawn from oppisite side of wall behind paint.

What's above the kitchen ceiling and how far is the landing area from the problem area in the kitchen? Which of these areas was recently painted, and when, etc.? And have you had an exceptionally wet season for the past 6 months, like in my part of NY? We've just had so much rain this summer that everyone around here has experienced some kind of moisture problem in their homes.

@klem1 It has been unusually wet this summer/fall. I don't believe we have a leak in the roof, but it would make sense that the attic would just be more humid than usual. Just surprises me it's not in every room of the house then.

@party_music50 The landing is right off the side of the kitchen, about 15 feet from the oven area. The ceiling in the landing with the most issues hasn't probably been painted in 10+ years, but the walls have been painted about 4 years ago before we moved in (which includes the one 5x5inch spot).

It sounds like we should double check the attic to be sure we aren't having any issues we missed, but it also sounds like there isn't much we can do if it's really been such a rainy season?

Our ceiling paint fell off last year--water was getting in through a loose nail on the roof.

@marge234 That's my worst fear. Will check for that and hope for the best. Thank you!