Where are you located? Have you considered a heat pump?

What are your energy rates?

SR

I'm in Southern Ontario, and I'm not convinced heat pumps will be able to deal with a cold winter on their own (i.e. without additional heat from a fireplace or two). Electricity rates are about 13 cents per kWh -- varies with time of day -- and current residential propane is about $1 per litre.

The size genny needed to handle resistance heat strips make it impractical if propane is an option. Since you have or will be getting a tank,by all means power the genny with propane. I'm speaking from years of experience with farm engines that aren't started and ran for long periods. Gasoline and diesel collect water and go bad in as little as 90 days (6 monthes for sure) and must be drained and replaced plus engine started and ran to clear old fuel from lines,pump and carb. Propane will be as fresh and usable after 5 years as the day it was put in tank. Even if propane is being used and replaced in tank from using appliances, in lines leading to genny and in fuel engine remains but never go's bad.

You should be able to heat with an air-source or geothermal heat pump in Ontario. Some duct modification might be required.

How many sq ft is the house? Have you had a heat load calculation done? Do you air-condition?

SR

Hi, T.V.,

When comparing operating costs, keep in mind that the cost of propane varies seasonally. Make sure you're using typical winter prices for propane when making any comparisons. You can, of course, take advantage of lower summer prices if you have a large propane storage tank. Factor in any known near-term price increases such as carbon taxes, etc. so your cost comparison isn't invalidated in the near term.

Based on the numbers you provided, you can almost flip a coin with regard to propane vs. electric heat system operating cost. Your operating cost for propane (excluding maintenance and depreciation expenses) is equivalent to electric if your propane-fired furnace efficiency is 92% The initial cost of the two systems will be different as will annual maintenance expense.

ETA: My early morning math was in error. When I saw Mike_Home's numbers below I realized that I flipped my electric and gas numbers. The operating cost of the propane-fired cost would indeed be 14% higher than electric assuming a furnace efficiency of 95%

I would definitely consider a cold-climate heat pump and also a hybrid option (a cold-climate heat pump paired with a propane furnace as emergency heat) as alternatives. Cold-climate heat pumps can operate in temperatures as low as -25C.

Electricity rates are about 13 cents per kWh -- varies with time of day -- and current residential propane is about $1 per litre. (or $3.79 per US gallon)

Here are some relative operating costs using the energy prices above to produce 100K BTU of heat:

Electric furnace: $3.81

Heat pump with COP = 3.0: $1.27

Heat pump with COP = 2.5: $1.52

Propane with 95% efficiency: $4.36

The electric rate is low and the propane rate is high. The lowest operating cost would be a heat pump (air or ground sourced) with electric heat strip back up. Even the current electric furnace is cheaper to operate than propane using these rates. The propane has the potential of running with a back up generator. You would need a much bigger generator with a heat pump, and it becomes impractical with an electric furnace.

The OP could heat with either a cold climate air-source HP or geothermal HP and have backup emergency resistance heating that is staged and programmed to operate at say the 5kW stage during an outage that can be powered by a modest backup generator as well as having at least 1-fireplace or Masonry Heater to make up the heating difference.

That might solve the emergency problems and keep pipes from freezing, although the OP hasn’t mentioned the size of the home, year or quality of construction. An inverter driven HP might also be able to run (heating or air-conditioning) at low stage with a modest generator as well.

IMPO

SR

The other factor to consider is the reliability of electrical service in the OP's area. If outages are rare, back up heat by other sources like those suggested by fsq4cw would be appropriate.

The house is a bungalow about 1600 square feet, and I've been doing more research into cold-weather heat pumps and think they may be my solution. Power outages are rare, but with climate change comes unexpected climate - this past May, my power was out for 5 days, and I realized that if it were to happen in the winter, I'd be in trouble. If it were to happen in the winter when I'm out of town, the house would be in trouble (pipes freezing) - that's why I want a backup generator. A tornado and dechero might be a once-in-a-century kind of coincidence, but lately "once-in-a-century" things seem to be happening once in a decade or so.

I've never heard of instances about which anyone linked climate change effects to power outages. Was the 5 day power outage in May that you cite such an example? Otherwise, what's the connection?