It is horrific.

However I disagree with the notion that it's totally beyond anyone's control. Forecasting of extreme weather events and emergency planning/services can save lives, and those agencies have been hollowed out, with more to come.

Dee, could not agree with you more. I learned to look at flood maps myself, because the flood plains aren't alway obvious. Until they are. 😢

In the past, I've seen plenty of warnings about flash flooding during extreme weather events. We've been having some pretty intense flooding here from storms, thankfully not where I am, but not that far away.

I work in a city playcamp, and we monitor weather closely, since a lot of our programming is outdoors. Last week's pool time was cancelled because of thunderstorms & lightning. A sleepaway camp must have emergency evacuation protocols in place, I'd think. We depend on local forecasts to inform us. I understand that a lack of forecasting has been mentioned in re: this catastrophe.

Those who read the NYT probably saw this, but a similar thing happened in 1987. You'd think the locals would re-think placement of camps for children and campgrounds for others.

Carol, I decided to delete/edit my comment because I honestly don't know.

It's horrifying. It definitely happened very fast. One who survived said it was chin deep when they woke up. Those poor little girls.

Horrible tragedy that hit so fast. We never know.

@lucille, your words...

"...to live the best lives we can, and be good to those close to us."

are so true.

Sometimes we think we have forever but forever can end at any moment.

This event is a horrific tragedy. I can’t imagine being a parent of one of the missing children. Since there are so many lodges, campgrounds, etc. along the Guadalupe I fear the final death toll.

@Olychick I agree, but some of these camps have been there for a hundred years or so. For many of us, generations of our families have gone to one of these camps.

A friend’s youngest daughter was helicoptered out of Mystic yesterday evening. My cousin’s oldest daughter and her husband lost their beautiful home and everything in it near the Guadalupe in Kerrville. Thankfully they and their dogs got out. I was surprised that they built so near the river since they both grew up in the Hill Country. The Canyon Lake Gorge was created in 2002 when the Guadalupe flooded. It’s unbelievable to go there and see what the wall of water created. https://www.gbra.org/recreation/canyon-lake-gorge/

Unfortunately, these rivers flood fairly frequently due to the topography. The Blanco flooded the same way a few years ago, and whole families were washed away inside their homes. I love our Hill Country rivers, and have spent lots of time in and on them. They are beautiful and alluring, but water is unbelievably powerful. I am praying for all of those affected by this terrible tragedy.

Such sad sad news.

This really is horrific. The last report I read said "at least 27 dead and 20 missing."

As parents of a daughter who attended a sleepaway camp here in TX throughout her childhood, I have been walking around with a pit in my stomach since we first heard about this. Our lakehouse is quite close to this area, and our town has taken on 10+ inches of rain from midnight to 8 a.m. today. Lake Travis, which is HUGE, is up twelve feet now, and may gain another 5-10 feet. This doesn't create an issue because the water has been very low for a long time, so there is plenty of room. But just thirty minutes ago, we got ANOTHER flash flood warning. It reminds me a bit of Hurricane Harvey in the way that the rain just seems stalled over the area.

I'm not particularly knowledgable about forecasting weather, and I do think there needs to be a thorough investigation. But I was reviewing the timeline, and it looks like as late as 9pm Thursday night, the Weather Service was just issuing reports of "storms in the area overnight".By 1 a.m. they had raised the stakes a bit, but it wasn't until 4 a.m. that they issued the flash flood warning. The pictures of Camp Mystic remind me of the camp my daughter attended -lots of cabins spread over a heavily wooded area. Although there were always mature staff members, like a director, assistant director, etc., the great majority of the staff were counselors -young women, mostly college age. This kind of situation, given the terrain and youth of those trying to help must have been horrific.

@texanjana "but some of these camps have been there for a hundred years or so. For many of us, generations of our families have gone to one of these camps." I certainly understand that nostalgia, but how many tragedies and families torn apart would it take to rethink it? I cannot imagine ONE family in the future risking sending their child to one of those camps.

@Olychick I said that I agreed with you in my previous post.

My point was how the history and culture of the camps has influenced their continuing to operate in what many of us know is an area at high risk for catastrophic flooding. Perhaps with climate change and this tragedy things will change.

People's memories fade with passing generations. I was thinking about Harvey as well - and that there were people who did not even know their homes were in a flood plain, because there was no requirement to tell them when they bought their homes.

Climate disruption is certainly creating more extreme events like this - during last year's hurricanes, areas in FL flooded that weren't even in flood zones.

FWIW, all our recreation staff are required to have CPR & First Aid training and the city provides it for free, with pay. We also conduct regular fire drills and have active shooter training.

Carol, if you buy a home and have a mortgage or insurance or use a realtor, you would be told about flood plains - whether you should get flood insurance and what insurance carriers would insure you. Might not be required, per se, but unless you are paying cash and don't care what your insurance cost or who the carrier is, it comes up in most home purchases. Renters might not be told, and people who think it will never happen to them might not listen.

I probably would have put money on flooding in the hill country this summer just because that is the way severe droughts get broken -- too little followed by too much. But I would never have expected this. We got a brief but very intense storm on the 3rd - the kind you are glad didn't last very long. Those hill country areas had at least 5 times the rain we did that day, all rushing through the hills down to the rivers.

This time lapse video shows how quickly the water rose in the Llano River - I read this is an area about 75 miles to the north east of Kerrville. Check out the clock in the upper right - not more than 4 minutes and people were all sleeping.....

Time Lapse Video of Llano River

And the death toll just keeps rising 😥

Ally, I think arcy's comment was directed more at Olychicks comment-which one could question the timing of "kindness" about this situation also. It's a HORRIBLE event, but it's no one's fault.

I'm just sick about it-as everyone else. We learned about it on the 4th, while visiting at my sister's house in Texas and we've been thinking and praying about all of them constantly ever since.

eta: Our church family has had kid's at church camp last week, and our older kids at our church are going next week. As a parent, it sure would be hard to let them go after this.

I have read seemingly conflicting information about the existence and timing of flash flood warnings and watches as well as staffing and forecasting. I saw one meteorologist talking about how all of the forecasting models had it wrong. One Canadian model had the right area but the amount of rainfall was off significantly. All the other models were forecasting the system to dump the most rain around San Angelo, well to the north and a very different topography. It may take some time to sort out what did happen, where and why. I hope we at least learn from this, but it does prove once again that these tropical systems that move off the Gulf often surprise us, especially when they interact with the weather patterns over land. We are also seeing another demonstration that we shouldn't take early storms and "less powerful" storms lightly.

Barry only reached 45 MPH. Allison and Alicia were both tropical storms that hit the Houston area - first of the season, first in the Gulf (like Barry), strong impact. I grew up on the Gulf Coast watching these storms, and I have to admit that I tend to not expect a lot from the first storm or two of the season -- they tend to go elsewhere and not reach great strength. This is a reminder they can still be major weather systems with major impact -- especially when other forces come into play. They are now saying that the remnants of Barry met up and merged or interacted with remnants of a Pacific system. I wonder if the forecasting models were not picking that up or underestimated one or both remnants.

A lot of loved, cherished and respected people have been lost. A lot of homes and futures have been washed away. We owe it to them to be gracious and kind to one another, help where we can and to learn how we can do better.

Another reality that should not need to be pointed out is the vagaries of science. No matter how much we know, or think we know, no matter the equipment available or the experts to interpret data, there is always the inexplicable nature of Mother Nature. We saw that here with the flooding in western NC. People want something, someone to be at fault in an effort to understand? explain? blame? because in some way that makes them feel safer, perhaps. They would have known, not ignored, not waited.... We can't know if the warnings would have been different or heeded differently with more staff. I tend to think not, or at least hope not for the sake of those who were working. They don't need to feel they erred in some way and thus be another casualty of this event. There are too many already.

I agree @lascatx there is always something to be learned. Not here, but I have read of blame being placed in malicious ways and I fear there is more of that to come - that's different than genuine desire to learn from a tragedy.

Quote: As of Sunday night....where 10 girls and one counselor from Camp Mystic are still unaccounted for, authorities said.

They're still expecting another 8" of rain.

I was in a flash food in October. That is some frightening stuff. I have always loved the rain and thunderstorms, until then. I really can't sleep any more if it's raining. Seeing that wall of water, hoping the front wall of your house holds up because otherwise you will likely die, and then dealing with the aftermath was and is overwhelming emotionally, physically, and financially. Three people died here. All I do is flood cleanup since then, pretty much, when I'm not at work. I'm nowhere close to done. What I went through pales in comparison to this event, and I can't even begin to imagine. Anyway, the extreme warnings here came after there was about two feet of water inside my house and five feet outside. The swift water rescue vehicle, which is rated for four feet, broke down in front of my house because the water was too deep.

Nicole, I heard thunder here and went to check the radar so I could decide whether to give my dog calm chews. I noticed most or the rain was off to the west, so I watched the time lapse and that system is just parked -- a little spiral to it, but basically parked. I was hoping it wasn't that much and areas that need it were getting a break.

Cooper, I'm so sorry for all you are having to deal with and I sure hope this rain ends or moves on soon. Harvey was parked like that and I will never forget the feeling of watching the water rise and the forecasters saying it was possible we could have another 8-10 inches or even a foot in some areas. We had over 40 inches that we recorded but the gauge overflowed at least once. I'd never seen so much water, but it was steady rising here. I've never seen a wall of water other than a tsunami in the news and that video of the Llano river I posted yesterday. I can't' imagine seeing that coming towards your home. My heart goes out to you and my hat's off to you and your perseverance. I lived in Austin 3 years and knew it could, but never saw it.

My brother does light construction and handyman stuff these days -- moving towards retirement or semi-retired. I'm guessing he will be as busy as he cares to be for a while. He used to be part of the Williamson County emergency team and I'm wondering if he is out helping somewhere. I tried to call him and the call ended without an answer or ability to leave a message. I got the feeling he was busy, not that it was a phone failure, so I was waiting for him to call back. Looks like I'll have to try again in the morning.

@cooper8828...I had no idea what you were dealing with. I'm so sorry that happened to you.

@cooper8828 I can't imagine the fear you felt watching the water approach. There is a lot of lingering storm PTSD here in western NC, too - going to sleep when it's raining is frightening for many and probably will be for a long time to come. We are still cleaning up as well. What happened in TX is staggering.

..just came to check on you guys, since I'm not sure who lives where...awful beyond anything I can say. Thank you for this thread, and my prayers for everyone affected

April, thank you so much for checking in. You know we have been thinking of you and your family!

Cooper and others, I am so sorry. Devastating and heartbreaking.

It happened so quickly and in the middle of the night. Perhaps even flood sirens would not have made much difference — the speed a d ferocity of th immense flash flooding.

But one warning has been there for generations — a topographic map and hydrographic information. The area is a Flood Plain — where flash flooding water will go. The land behind and above the camps is high, steep. Probably impossible to traverse. That is the edge, boundary of the large, wide flood plain where for generations people have insisted on building and dwelling. Most of the time, it is dry. People can be close to the water/river and it’s easy to build structures, roads, playgrounds. But, it is a floodplain and any flood waters from heavy and long lasting rains (say, from a stalled system) will quickly turn that acreage (flood plain) into a deep, powerful raging river.

Very sad. People keep building on them. In a perfect world, flood plains would be left undisturbed, except maybe for daytime hiking or ball field or cookouts.

ed

The loss of life and destruction is tragic. I know of two children involved, one still missing, the other was found and is deceased (from our hometown, where we raised our children). I hope everyone missing will be accounted for, so families can either have a joyful reunion or closure. Without closure, there is added heartache.

I read earlier the river level rose almost 26ft in 45min. Seeing that it was in the middle of the night, I am not sure how many would have been awake and even aware of the pending danger. But warnings began Wednesday, July 2nd. As stated above, all but one model location were incorrect, and even that one had the rainfall amount incorrect.

This was not a 100yr flood, but a 500yr flood. (ETA: Read online, not my words.)

There used to be a link for NOAA weather radio when I brought up my weather on the iPhone. I don’t see it now. Can anyone tell me how toget it? How to set up Weather Alerts (like I can opt into getting Amber Alerts)? Thanks.

petalique I get notifications on my phone from multiple sources. Myradar app has an option for various weather alerts, my county texts and/or emails weather alerts. There are also wireless emergency alerts through FEMA that go automatically (I believe) to compatible cell phones and if you google that you should find info.

Thanks. I will look into those.

For my iPhone, I just saw that it is:

Settings/Notifications/Government Alerts

Then I can opt in for any of the following:

AMBER Alerts

Emergency Alerts

Public Safety Alerts

Test Alerts

Here's a time lapse of the river rising . It's insane! Click to see

Just now watching a news report saying water rose 26’ in 45 minutes!

lucille that's horrible and inexcusable.

After donating to groups that were on the ground here after Helene, I started following Cajun Navy social media and am keeping up with some of their work in TX. I can't fathom how any of these responders will ever sleep again with what they are finding. They are heroes in the midst of this tragedy.

This is not a 500 year flood, and people should expect similar floods every 10 years in that area. There was a similar flood in 1987, and floods are now becoming larger. It is a false sense of security to suggest that another similar flood will not happen for another 500 years.

DLM, the Cajun Navy has been in our area twice recently. Once looking for a local that would hike into the state forest and another looking for a missing girl that drowned. Sadly, neither bodies were located.

Of course that area will flood more often and sooner. . I believe their point was the rate of the river rising and the height it reached.

Allison I had never heard of them till Helene hit NC. Maybe I hadn't paid attention before but I remember you mentioned they were either on their way or already here. Amazing response and organization - they do incredible work.

Beautiful country. Love those hills and stone houses.

This is a very informative article.

Link: https://apple.news/AStNk5WK5RBmEGEkyFkb1jw

The Guadalupe River rose 29’ in the July 1987 flash flood.

Again too many were killed.

https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/hill-country-deadly-flood-has-happened-before-1987-20427606.php

I'm traveling up to our lakehouse next week and will for the first time see some of the devastation. As expected, it's a big, big mess. The road from Austin out to our house is passable, but about three miles past our turnoff, the road is completely washed out. Though it's been rated a top-priority, it will be a while until it's repaired.

The complexity feels overwhelming. People with very little and no insurance have lost every single item they owned. There have been no live rescues since last Friday, which is very disheartening, and the authorities don't even really know how many people are missing, since there were campers from everywhere all along the rivers.

I don't think the media has done a great job of showing the secondary flooding. The first flash flood hit Mystic Camp, an RV campground behind Howdy's Bar & Grill and surrounding Kerrville areas on Friday. But by the next two days, the water had flowed into other rivers fed by the Guadalupe, and additional towns have flooded (including our lakehouse town and others).

Many local animal shelters and rescues have pitched in and taken cats and dogs into their shelters. Search teams ave also found many deceased pets. This is part of an overall great response, but it's also complicated to find your dog -there are a dozen places to call. Imagine trying to find an unchipped black lab mix or a tabby cat.

Everything is covered in mud. There's been a great response from the local community but even that has become problematic -for example, a drone hit a helicopter, and then the helicopter was grounded. Anyway, I'm hoping I can be helpful when I get up there next week, but what a mess.....

It is absolutely horrific and I feel for all the families having to deal with this first hand. I was overseas when it happened and it was widely reported there as well. I had to explain how it could happen. I do hope we see some change from this and especially with camps that are in flood plains and having better emergency procedures. My initial reaction was how could they not have had someone monitoring weather conditions knowing that they are in a flood plain and in general Texas weather even when predicted to not be heavy can change quickly.

I had a house in Austin where part of the backyard was in a 100 year floodplain and I did have flood insurance, but still anytime we had heavy rain fall I was nervous. Thankfully it never got close to the house or even hit the 1 in a 100 chance- 1% chance (100 year flood) of heavy enough rain to go all the way up to the line on the map.

I noticed there seemed to be some confusion of what a 100 year flood and 500 year flood really means. It doesn't mean that it would happen once every 100 years or 500 years it is just a statistical value of the chance of it happening in any given year. A 100 year flood has a 1% chance of happening in a year and a 500 year flood has a 0.2% chance of happening in any given year and it is tied to a particular area. I think most maps show the 100 year floodplain and all they seem to do is update the line on those to increase what is covered with the changes in weather we are seeing.

Carolb -Yesterday, our local NPR station hosted a career meteorologist who has recently retired to Hunt, TX -where Mystic Camp is. He made a strong case for people overestimating the capabilities of today's weather technologies. He has carefully studied the NWS timeline and other data and says in his opinion, there was no dereliction of duties. That is a separate issue than the need for a local warning system, which I'm guessing many of these communties will find budget $ for now.

Yes, people misuse that all the time, even journalists

Bestyears, there was a good timeline article on NPR. (LINK)

In addition to the Cajun Navy, two others where donations are used for rescues versus admin are Mission Mules (LINK), and Global Empowerment Mission (GEM link). 97% of GEM donations goes to mission related activities. 100% of donations raised by BStrong go to GEM.

Not necessarily lack of forecasting and warnings, but lack of people to carry it out at the local level, I understand - lack of a good system in place.

Just finished reading this:

"Local and national news outlets are doing an exemplary job piecing together what happened on that fateful July 4th morning. CNN reports that prior to the Guadalupe River surging 26 feet, the NWS used an intergovernmental messaging platform to share key storm information with local emergency managers. It appears that officials from Kerr County may not have participated.

“The messages show that after initial briefings on the afternoon of Thursday, July 3, about the potential of heavy rains to come, emergency managers from some counties in the region were posting on the system, querying forecasters about what to expect. Those messages picked up in pace as the flooding began in the early hours of July 4. But no emergency manager from Kerr County participated in those discussions on the messaging platform. It’s unclear whether officials were reviewing the information being shared.”

The NWS issued many publicly shared alerts that would have also automatically been sent to cell phones and radios. Those included several flash flood warnings leading up to a rare flash flood emergency alert early Friday morning. This alert indicated imminent, life- threatening danger. It read, in part, “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION and a Flash Flood EMERGENCY is in effect.”

The Texas Tribune is now reporting that Kerr County officials are refusing to account for that big gap:

“Weather warnings gave officials a 3 hour, 21 minute window to save lives in Kerr County. What happened then remains unclear. Federal forecasters issued their first flood warning at 1:14 a.m. on July 4. Local officials haven’t shed light on when they saw the warnings or whether they saw them in time to take action.”

Further, we have learned that local systems that could have warned victims in Kerr Country- where most of the fatalities occurred- were not promptly deployed. The Texas Newsroom reports:

“According to emergency radio transmissions The Texas Newsroom reviewed, volunteer firefighters asked for what’s called a “CodeRED” alert to be sent as early as 4:22 a.m. Dispatchers delayed, saying they needed special authorization. Some residents received flood warnings from CodeRED within an hour. Others told The Texas Newsroom they did not receive their first alert until after 10 a.m., raising questions about why the messages that residents received were sporadic and inconsistent.”

Telephone alerts might not have helped prevent the unspeakable loss at Camp Mystic because campers and counselors aren’t allowed to have phones. Loud sirens could have provided some advance warning if only the county had some. But the local government in Kerr County, where floods are common, has repeatedly refused to install sirens, citing the expense.

Some nearby counties did make the investment in safety warnings that were put to use on July 4th. The Boerne Star reports that in nearby Comfort, Texas, “Emergency sirens wailed…signaling emergency conditions and a mandatory evacuation, as the surging Guadalupe River continued its historic rise.” No one in Comfort was killed in the flooding.

While Kerr County officials are mostly silent on their role in this flooding disaster, some have gone in front of the TV cameras this week to blame the National Weather Service for the failure to forecast the severity of the flood. “Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly claimed officials “didn’t know this flood was coming.” But officials in counties adjacent to Kerr County said the NWS warnings were sufficient.

Weather experts weigh in

Many outside meteorologists also agree that the forecasting and alerts were satisfactory. Texas meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote: “In this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event. Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest.“

Chicago meteorologist Tom Skilling told me: “It’s a bit rich to hear officials there are going after the National Weather Service which, as I understand it, had accurately put out a flash flood watch ahead of the onset of heavy rain.“

The National Weather Service offices in Texas- including the ones in the area of this flooding disaster- are understaffed because of the (*) cutbacks. Several key leadership spots are vacant and one office is also minus a hydrologist, the specialist who monitors rivers. The NWS says it cobbled together enough people to work the storm but that’s a band-aid approach that is not sustainable."

https://jenniferschulze.substack.com/p/death-on-a-texas-river

* not naming names, most know who/what

A lot of loved, cherished and respected people have been lost. A lot of homes and futures have been washed away. We owe it to them to be gracious and kind to one another, help where we can and to learn how we can do better.

Thank you, Lascatx, and this bears repeating imo.

Carol, I've hear that Kerr County did not have a siren, but I have also herd they have 3 times requested assistance from the state and the legislature 3 times denied it, including earlier this year. I heard a figure of less than or near $1 million. Kerr County appears to have a lot of temporary residents and visitors, and given the way the legislature keeps whacking property taxes and limiting what local entities can do, it is entirely possible they could not install the system without assistance. Given the tourism and number of people who visit from all over the state (and elsewhere), state assistance seems to be a reasonable request. NOW, they seem to care about doing something (no indication what, but that siren would seem to be at the top of the list).

I don't know about flood sirens, but have lived in tornado areas my entire life. Ten years ago the top local meteorologist in our previous area said "tornado siren mentality kills people." They were designed to warn people that are outdoors (golf courses, stadiums, etc). Unless you live very close to a tornado siren, you most likely won't hear it in your house - especiaily if children are playing, TV or music is on, vent hood/cooking, washing machine going nearby, etc. Even thunderstorms. People need to use a layered approach for storm warnings: weather app, TV, radio, weather radio, etc.

I signed up for our local Sheriff's office app, FD app, and I have 2 weather apps on my phone. I also signed up for hurricane alerts from the County. There are no tornado sirens where we currently live.

That said, in some previous homes, if no other noise in the house, I could hear a tornado siren testing on the first Wednesday of the month. Otherwise, during a weather event, someone somewhere has to activate the sirens.

I am not saying Texas and other areas do not need flood sirens, just that they are not foolproof, and other options (plural) need to be available.