Good for you! I know so many of us are in drought and near-drought conditions. We had a lovely gentle soaking LONG rain a few weeks back (although it only lasted for half the time it was forecast to) but now we need more.. Just came in from a bit of watering but have to be careful because I have a well. Luckily the cooler temps have helped a bit with plant survival!

Enjoy your rain!

:)

Dee

Yay, Porkchop! Happy for you. I hope we all get some good soaking rains before the winter.

Just got home from work, where a coworker toldl me it was supposed to rain for the next three days. Yay, I thought! Just checked the weather, and that's not QUITE what's going to happen. There's a CHANCE of rain, late tomorrow, and early Wednesday, and then maybe an hour or so Thursday. All told about a 32% chance (well, UP to 32% - at times it's as low as 9%) of rain for a total of 7 hours over the next three days. Not too hopeful but fingers crossed.

Hope you got a good amount of rain, porkchop!

:)

Dee

Yay! And we got some today, too - so happy!

Its been the rainest july-sept i can remember here. over 6” since july 1, which is a ton for here. has been raining almost constantly the last 24 hrs

Finally had some rain overnight. Nothing major but gentle enough to hopefully soak in. We're due for more on Thursday.

I did finally replace the container I was using to measure the rain with and I stabilized it because it came loose in a storm the last time and was knocked over. Does anyone use a rain gauge that they like? Maybe one with large numbers? [g]

Looks like I only had less than a 1/4 inch. Tomorrow I might get more.

We've finally gotten some rain here too after a drought. I was so used to going out and watering everything, I feel like I don't know what to do with my extra time. lol

My cardinal flower seems to have checked out but I was relieved to see that my pawpaw trees along the edge of our field are still alive. I drove back there with gallon jugs of water a few times but I was afraid it wouldn't be enough. They'd be happier growing near a creek in their natural setting.

Christie, with some of the flash flooding we've had this year, maybe living next to a creek would not be so good for you. Glad your pawpaws are still doing ok.

We had rain today, but not like they described - saying heavy rains, most of the day... We had some in the morning then around dinner time. It stopped and I just went to check to see how much we got... this is how much... :-) Not much more than an inch I'd say but....I'll take it. Better than a fraction of an inch.

PM2, pretty much the same here. Just like last time, hours and hours and hours of rain were forecast, and it just didn't materialize to that full extent. We had some gentle rain early yesterday morning/the night before, and then yesterday a downpour for about 15 minutes midday. Like you, we probably got about an inch. I guess I'll take it - anything is appreciated at this point - but I just wish they'd stop getting our hopes up with these forecasts!

:)

Dee

" I guess I'll take it - anything is appreciated at this point - but I just wish they'd stop getting our hopes up with these forecasts! "

Yeah this is an alarming thing I've noticed since spring 2024, the forecast accuracy seems to have gone off the cliff. So many times the main forecast, or QPF, will say we are due for x amount of precip, and we get from x/3 to x/10! I've tracked forecasts closely since I moved here, and I'm sure it's the worst 18 month period for accuracy, but have no way to prove that.

Got some rain here too, but not enough to make up for the soil moisture deficit caused by the driest August ever.

The rain on Tues. was short lived and minimal. Thurs. was supposed to be 100% and a really good amount. Then down to 80% of a lesser amount. Turns out it was less than 1/4". At least we got some...sigh.

Oh, you too, Peren.all?! That's too bad. Well...I'm glad the forecasts have been brought up, because I've started to think that something has changed with Climate Change, that is making forecasting more difficult. Our weather forecasters, at least seem to be trying to get it right and responding to the poor forecasts. It used to be they would say the whole area would get rain, now they are careful to point to which part of the state is more likely to get heavier rain. And of course they do use percentages. I don't pay much attention to a forecast unless the percentage is 80% of higher. BUT ... this last time they were saying 100% chance of rain for my specific area! But, to be fair, my area did get rain and an inch which is what they were forecasting. Just not the heavy downpours and all day rain. Really they are just not able to give a good forecast any more for whatever reason. And even ONE day before rain, they still can't get it right.

Thunderstorms are notoriously hard to predict

Northeast getting drier and drier now, every day is gorgeous now, today was 88 F. without a cloud in the sky. Winter will bring major flooding is my prediction. Hurricane season has been weird, most have been "fish storms", so heading out to sea. Late season storms though, tend to be more Gulf and Caribbean, not Atlantic, so the late season may bring more rain to the US.

Just heard the forecast this morning. We are due for less than an inch of rain this morning, but the big news is that they are forecasting a freeze warning on Friday morning. That seems early to me.

Much of the the upper half of MI is under a freeze watch for tonite, frost is forecasted here where I am tonite. Have to make sure to cover my squash, I haven't harvested yet.

Yes I’m smiling at the sound of rain here in the Hudson Valley! Looking forward to diving into dividing and transplanting. The freeze way h seems to be a quick pass on Friday. I will bring in tender plants but look forward to more rain

next week. This drought was scary but hopefully won’t result in the damage to trees we saw a few years ago. I think that was aggravated by an early freeze.

We just had to go into Boston, and on the way home it was coming down pretty good and when we got back to our town, hardly raining at all. lol I keep telling my husband I think we live in the Bermuda Triangle of weather around here. No matter who else is getting it, half the time we get less than the forecast while other areas near us get what was expected. Almost...comical, not quite.

Strong subtropical nor'easter coming up the coast from Florida will be most welcome this weekend! Been very, very dry since July. This storm should help from N.C. to parts of New England. Still a lot of severe drought in the East, especially W.V. to northern New England, and this coastal storm will not be enough.

We're waiting for the same storm, 41North. They are suggesting 2-4inches of rain starting late ...the heaviest after we go to sleep. 60mph winds. The Cape and the Islands are supposed to get the 4inches so I would be surprised if we get more than 2 inches. I'll take it!!

we were able to get out and finish a small project, move some plants, plant a few pots that needed to get in the ground and mulch just in time for the rain. Happy about that. Hope everyone that needs rain gets some!

Good to hear you northeasters are going to get a good dousing.

Thanks Porkchop, yeah, nowadays these "flash droughts" come on suddenly and then alternate with flash floods. Still a lot of very arid pockets in the East as the Arizona seems to be getting a lot of late monsonsonal rains. I am predicting a very WET winter in the N.E., Prairiemoon. Been seeing this pattern in recent years, droughty in summer, especially late summer into autumn until mid autumnal storms arrive. Partly, this is due to the lack of any interaction from tropical systems in August into October. Still, Caribbean and Gulf are open for business THIS current season, been dead down there, so water temps are unusually high as there have been no storms to bring down the heat. Been a weird season, we are still getting Cape Verde type storms in the Atlantic as of mid October, and all of them have been recurving out to sea east of North America. Meterology is one of my passions!

I hope 41 north gets some rain but this 'far' inland in MD, it looks like it's going to almost completely bypass us. Lots of wind today but no rain so far. I had a warning from the PHL NOAA office, which is always more on top of these kind of things, it seems, than Sterling's. They said very early on Saturday:

Latest deterministic model guidance has trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that the QPF forecast has been lowered.

41 North, short of asking AI, I wonder if there's a weather group on reddit or whatnot where I could ask this question: has there ever been such a long stretch of most of the Piedmont and coastal mid-Atlantic not getting any precipitation from tropical storms? Helene petered out over TN/WV because of a blocking high pressure system over the NE. The current storm was extra tropical of course, and is even managing to be an 'out to sea' northeaster, at least for us. Presumably coastal New England will still see good rainfall. Since I moved here in 2005 at least 80% of autumn rainfall comes from such systems, so their sudden absence is very alarming.

Yeah, I know, Upper Bay, this is very much a coastal rain maker. You should see the drought monitor colors of RED for northern New England and MAINE!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Drought Monitor

UpperBay, just saw your edited, extended post with questions. I am sure there have been meterological analogs to the current season. I don't read anything climate change related into any given hurricane season, but you are accurate, much of our late Summer into Autumn precip in the East depends on tropical systems, and this season, the tap is turned OFF. I am not alarmed by it, as the tap frequently gets turned ON for us just as quickly! For both you and me though, climate change WLL affect the distribution of precipitation. We will both see an average INCREASE in annual rainfall, we may get more flash droughts, but our climate will offer us both plentiful, monsoonal rain to aleviate the periods of drought. Other areas will not be as lucky. But still be a challenge for our crops and current ecosystem.

Thank 41. If there's any good news, the main low is still actually off Cape Hatteras. Between reading both AFDs, although our QPFs having dropped pathetically low, it seems there's still a small chance that a secondary low could form, that would pull more moisture into my area tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

Was just outside and felt a few light spritzes of "driving drizzle"! It has been very windy - detritus is being strewn over parts of my garden - and I'm worried there's a chance I won't get an accurate RF estimate because the stake holding my rain gauge might blow over! But there are plenty of local online weather stations to follow these days. They are generally accurate enough.

You will curse the dry until you get the BIG WET!

Hope you all keep posting all the meteorology discussion you want. I find it fascinating even though I don't understand it. I do know that our forecasts have become very unreliable and it's frustrating. I don't understand why they can't get it right. What changed? We haven't had a drop of rain really today. They did say that the strongest rainfall would be after we all go to bed, so I do hope it does materialize. I'd rather be disappointed with no rain in the forecast, then hear that we're getting 3-4 inches of rain and get a drizzle. I hate the phrases...'out to sea' and 'petered out'....lol.

*sigh*

Just the same, the drought here @ my location is not as bad as more northerly areas, so I can at least use my hose, if I hand water. But that's a short term solution.

Storm slowed down on its northern track due to high/dry presure over New England. It's crawling north now, still looks to be a coast hugger for Md. and NJ, still looks decent for Ma. Just started raining here, about 12 hours later than predicted, looks like a bad Monday AM event now.

So far here, just more driving drizzle. Absolutely pathetic. If I were to go back to the original QPF prediction of 4"+ of rain a week ago, this is one of the worst rain prediction busts ever. At least with all the GD hurricanes in the past 2 seasons that missed the east coast, we knew over a week in advance they were going to go out to sea, thanks to the excellent work of the NHC. This northeaster looked super promising when it formed. In my 2nd or 3rd year in this garden, I remember an October Nor'easter that brought me SEVEN inches of rain!

With things as they stand now, I'm going to have to start watering soon. And I hate having to water at this time of year. If you have to water in summer, you at least get some reward in terms of the plant growing or flowering for you. You water at this time of year just to keep things from dying over the winter! 41 is probably right that we will go into a wet pattern in November/December - as we did last year - but I don't want to take any chances. I was about to move a large, super rare Stewartia. Now I don't know whether to do it, and accept I'll have to water the damn thing potentially all winter, or put it off another year. (taking guessing game submissions on what 'super rare Stewartia' could be...)

update @ 3:30pm EDT

Interesting distribution of rain so far but coastal NJ, NY and CT seem to be doing best. It is struggling to get to .25" here 😞. The .49" in western Lancaster County is a mystery, but I know from driving around that is a high elevation 'bump' so it's probably due to orography. (but it's Wunderground, so it could just be some idiot with a badly calibrated WX station!) At least this will keep my grass green another week. A well grown lawn needs very little rain, especially if temps are cool. And I got almost a 1/2" earlier in October. The summer I was in Edinburgh it was almost rain free (I really lucked out, according to the locals...who were actually mostly other international students in my dorm, just ones that had been there for years!) but everything was still green when I left, even though the soil appeared quite dry in bare or turned areas. There's how things seem around here now. The hole I created with my backhoe to move a 7' Stewartia, looks like brownish concrete.

At least those along the coast will get some help:

Lots of local street flooding around me when i got back from work, not far away! i was really surprised. High sea levels from storm surge must have moved up local river drainage basins, definitely a coastal event.

41 North - I was just checking my front stoop for a delivery and it's still raining out there. More than it was most of the day. I did check my container yesterday morning and we had an inch of rain. It did drizzle off and on all day today and surprising that it's now raining harder than it was all day. Makes me think you were right that the rain is 12 hrs later than forecast. Maybe that's what's going on here too. I bet I have another inch, I'll check it again in the morning. I hope you get more too.

I know how you feel when you really want to move something and the weather is not cooperating. I am still looking to move a few things here too, that I've delayed a few seasons. We did finish a small bed with a few moved perennials and 4 small pots of perennials added and mulched. Just in time for the rain. And I watered that bed by hand last week, so that should be all set for awhile. The trees could really use it and a number of my ferns have disappeared. Fingers crossed they will come back in the spring.

UpperBayGardener - Hope you can move your Stewartia! For us, now, they are saying rain through Tuesday...so I hope you get some extended rain too.