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dennis1983

Southeastern U.S.A. chilling accumulation estimation

15 years ago

Hi

I found on internet 1 chilling accumalation estimate for Southeastern U.S.A. which is perhaps not well known here or not as widely recognized as 2 others chilling requirement calculations. First i thought it was calculation, but now i see it is estimation, so i let it then be so and call it estimation.

Here is those 2 methods written quickly.

1. 1 Chill unit is 1 hour between 32 Fahrehheit degrees and 45 Fahnrenhiet degrees. So using this method your chill units is just accumulation of hours between those temperatures ranges, with possible limits on dates also (I meant starting on some date and ending some date and chill hours between those days and calculating same way.).

2. Utah model is another way to calculate chill units. This method takes account of high temperatures, which may reduce already accumulated chill units and as well give partial chilling when temperature are under/over optimal temperature. I just said optimal, i don't mean it is optimal in exactly, but 1 hour in optimal temperature give 1 chill unit in that temperature. You can perhaps find using google exactly numbers to calculate Utah model.

Now to that estimation method. Above 2 methods need hourly weather data to calculate chilling accumulation. Southeastern Peach Grower's Handbook says it is quite good way as follows : "

Altought Utah model is probably closer to measuring the real effects of temperature on peach buds, it needs modification to predict bloom in the southeast".

That was it. This 3rd method try to better way measure chilling accumalation for Southeast U.S.A. I read this method from Southeastern Peach Grower's Handbook from University of Georgia. Additionally Texas A # M university says also "it has demonstrated to be accurate for estimating chill accumulation in Texas from the Lower Rio De Grande Valley up to the Red River and should work well throughout the southeastern U.S."

Yes it says estimation. Not any mention of California, U.S.A. i see. Does this work there too? I think Texas, U.S.A. is not considered usually as southeastern U.S.A, instead as southern U.S.A. So perhaps it is possible...

3. This method estimation is using following formula :

Seasonal chill hours = 100 * (18,5 C - T)

18,5 C means 18,5 Celsius degrees and T is temperature. T is coldest month average temperature. It is suggested to be janury in Georgia (I see from Southeastern Peach Grower's Handbook), but it can be other month as well, so if you think coldest month is december, then take that month average temperature. And average temperature was counted this way day high temperature + low temperature / 2. This was monthly average temperature so you need do that for every day of month and take average of those results (If you do this calculation yourself). Remember we need coldest month average temperature in Celsius degrees, so if you have Fahrenheit degrees, you need to convert those to Celsius degrees.

Next you think where you get your monthly average temperature data? Here is 3 resource where you can find it.

1.www.wunderground.com if you get Fahrenheit degrees as a default grade, you can change temperature readings to Celsius degrees in upper right corner under link Page Preferences, choose there metric and update page. Just one note on many places Wunderground gets hourly data and it counts average using normal average formula, not the one above. Normal i meant if you have 4 readings it is sum of 4 and divide it for 4. This may make small discrepancy compared to the above formula, i would say maximum about 0,5 Celsius for 1 day - at the worst i think (That is just mine quick feeling - not scientific or verified thing, if you are worried about it you can count both way and see what the discrepancy would be).

2. http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/cdoselect.cmd?datasetabbv=GSOD&countryabbv=&georegionabbv= use global summary of the day, i have previosly described this already quite a bit, there you have daily high and low temperature and average temperature available, which you can use. But remember temperatures are in Fahrenheit degrees, so you need to convert it again.

3. Use NOWdata this might be one of useful way to get that data. To start getting the data go to the www.weather.gov , then click from left frame Local link. Now you see list of headquarters (Where is NOAA offices located). Now let's look at Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A. data. Let's choose Greenville/Spartanburg in South Carolina section. Yes Charlotte is actually in North Carolina, but in this place it is under South Carolina place (So you should perhaps check neighborhood state as well if you are close to state boarder, if you do not find your area on your state list). Then scroll down page and click Local Climate button , it is in middle section which says quick links, click it. It will open new window, so you probably need to disable pop up blocker, if you have one or add the site to the expection list. Now we got some weather data, let's click NOWdata button. Now let's make some choices to get the data what we want. From variable options we choose Avg temperature and year section last year 2008 as well as section 2 Charlotte Dougla NC and after that click go. Now we got another new window, which shows our results, which in our case is Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A. average monthly temperature for 2008 in Fahnrenheit degrees. Now we see coldest average montly tempeature was in january 2008 with 40,5 F. When we convert that to Celsius degrees we got 4,72 C.

Now we can count Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A. chill accumation. Now we got the following calculations :

100 * (18,5 C - 4,72 C) = 100 * 13,78 C = 1 378 chilling units for Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A.

One thing for about still those NOWdata i have seen some of those headquarters do not have or it is not as easily available that Local Climate link. Then we should do the following, but before going there go to go to look that Charlotte data first (If you did not do that already, yes you can choose some other place in list also if you want). Do you remember that headquarter site as above told? If you look that site and put cursor on to some of headquarters name, on status bar on you see that headquarters internet address. It is wroten few /something/something/ way. Look last characters after /. On Greenville/Spartanburg it is gsp. You need that characters to go to NOWdata. Now open your browser page history. Look todays page history and click link which starts with nowdata. and so on. You get again the list of choose options to get the data, but now you have a internet address in address bar. Look that internet address and remove GSP (Or someother if you checked some other than Charlott data.) and replace it code that headquarter which you choosed from the list (Headquarter list) and press enter, then you get that headquarter NOWdata and can process as above. That was for help, if you ended headquarter page, where you do not find that Local Climate link. If you find it then you do not need to do above mentioned things.

Now back to model. I use now NOWdata and bring some chilling accumulation for 2008 as well coldest month, just only results :

Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A. january 1 378

Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A. january 1 284

Birmingham, Alabama, U.S.A. january 1234

New Orlans, Lousiana, U.S.A. january 634

Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. january 206

Daytona Beach, Florida, U.S.A. january 289

Vero Beach, Florida, U.S.A. january 84

Jacksonville, Florida, U.S.A. january 478

St Augustine, Florida, U.S.A. january 345

Douglas, Georgia, U.S.A. january 984

Brunswick, Georgia, U.S.A. january 734

Dallas, Texas, U.S.A. january 1078

Weatherfox, Texas, U.S.A. january 1323

Austin, Texas, U.S.A. january 828

Johnson city, Texas, U.S.A. january 1039

San Antonio, Texas, U.S.A. january 750

Medina, Texas U.S.A. january 1039

Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A. january 589

Fresno, California, U.S.A. december 1134

John Wayne, California, U.S.A. december 567

Palm Springs, California, U.S.A. january 584

San Diego, California, U.S.A. january 634

Santa Ana, California, U.S.A. december 495

Thermal, California, U.S.A. january 689

O.K. there was few weather stations. I took California, Arizona and Texas also so you can see if it works there. No mention above of California. For me those Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A. seems little high chilling accumulation, maybe it is not enough south. Florida seems quite o.k. for me, as they are asking low chill variety, those numbers looks like they can grow some low chill varieties about Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. and north of that. Miami, Florida, U.S.A. had negative chilling number using this method if you think it, i checked it once, so they do not have chilling there.

Here is link to Southeastern Peach Grower's Handsbook, you need Adobe Acrobat to read those because those are in PDF format (Chilling thing is in varieties section, if you think it).

http://www.ent.uga.edu/peach/peachhbk/toc.htm

Hope this helps and is helpful for somebody, maybe someone knew it already, but i think someone would like to know it.

Comments (8)

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    I haven't had a chance (at least in the proper state of mental acuity) to think out the details of your post, but I did just by coincidence happen across some mention of related thinking you might be interested in.

    http://seasonalchef.com/chill.htm

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    according to this method I have 1150 chill hours which is no where near right for port st joe, fl it should be around 700-500 chill hours

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    I am back.

    Hi Macmanmatty2, you said you have 1 150 chill hours. You also said you live in Port st joe, Florida, U.S.A. Your chilling accumulation using this method looks too big in my opinion. Your cordinates in Port st joe, Florida, U.S.A. is 29,80 N and 85,29 W. Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. cordinates are 30,27 N and 84,16 W. So your location is southwest from Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.

    I counted Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. year 2008 chilling units and it is not as high as you posted. I got Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. 778 chill hours for year 2008. You said 1 150 chill hours. 372 Chill hours less than your number. May i ask you where you got your number or what you counted? Are you sure you counted it right way? Also if i think you are more southwesterly than Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. you might have even less chill hours than that of 778 chill hours of Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. 778 Chill hours in Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A. is much closer your should be 700-500 chill hours than your 1 150 chill hours.

    I also counted following surrounding places in Florida and got following chilling hours using this method :

    Aplachicola, Florida, U.S.A. 767
    Chipley, Florida, U.S.A. 962
    De Funiak Spring, Florida, U.S.A. 934
    Madison, Florida, U.S.A. 800
    Mayo, Florida, U.S.A. 750
    Perry, Florida, U.S.A. 600
    Quincy 3 ssw, Florida, U.S.A. 873

    That was the list. None of those places have 1 150 chill hours and none reached 1 000 chill hours. Aplachicola, Florida, U.S.A. is southeastern from your location having 767 chill hours. So you probably have something between those 2 places, between 778 chill hours and 767 chill hours. So about 700 chill hours, not 1 150 chill hours you got. What is the discrepancy here? Those 2 numbers are quite close to your should be around number. Any idea? No need to feel guilty any way, you may have just made an mistake, well you can learn about those.

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    dennis you are right I miss read the number I was supposed to calculate with I though it was the average coldest temp for the month but after reading I find that you just use the average temp for the month. Not the coldest temps averaged. I now get 750 which seems about right.

    Thanks

    macmanmatty

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    Hi

    Hi Macmanmatty2 mine previous message last phrase i meant that you are human, so mistakes can happen. Yes i think so too there was just error on your counting, no problem we got it to fix and got the right number now. Glad to hear you liked mine message and appreciated it. Good to hear i helped at least someone and you are welcome Macmanmatty about this information. I just got to see this information, while i am looking into peach trees, so i decided just give this information out if someone is interested (I meant if someone is not known this information about this chilling accumulation estimation yet). Good you think you got it right now, it is made so (Chilling accumulation estimation i meant.) it should work in southeast U.S.A. Good to see you now get 750 chill hours which us right in your opinion, so we got solution to this problem.

    Hi Gonebananas about your posted link, i got looked into it. It talks about chilling requirement in Central Valley. I think Central Valley is in California, U.S.A. It talks about insufficient chilling units and how they got crops still. I have looked into it little by using New Mexico state university intnernet site. It says temperature between 41 F and 60 F counts for both chilling requirement and growth units, it says if chilling is partially satisfied, tree will still break bud , but at a slower rate. Are you refererring to this? Here is the link for it :

    http://aces.nmsu.edu/aes/irrigation/documents/cold-hardiness.pdf

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    Hi

    I need to make one fix here. I used word "headquarters" on my message when describting how to get that data from NOWdata. When you click that Local button, you see office list not headquarters, sorry i used wrong word, i meant word office. So list have weather office (As page also shows, so you probably got it right.) location not headquarters. Sorry for the inconvience, now it is fixed.

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    I track chilling hours in the San Diego area using weatherunderground.com data and some software I made. We get anywhere from 0-600 on average depending on how close you live to the ocean.

    What I have heard and read from expert growers and wholesale nurseries is that chilling hour requirements are not an exact science. It will only give you a rough estimate of what will fruit in your area. This is true no matter what model you use. In a lot of cases chill requirement specified by the grower for a tree is not accurate.

    They do studies on this at UC Riverside and are constantly finding fruit trees with high chill requirements that fruit with only a few hundred chill hours.

    If you want to be sure something will fruit well in you area then plant what is known to grow fruit year after year in your area. I won't buy fruit trees that don't have fruit on them at the local nursery in the spring (assuming the tree was at the nursery in the winter).

  • 15 years ago
    last modified: 10 years ago

    Hi

    Hi Econ0003 thanks of your opinion. I think you are about right that it might be good indication to look what fruits in your area, to see if you can grow it that way you can have fruits on it. Not sure about your comment on nursery thing altough.