There was snow mixed with the rain here last night but only a few flakes. None on the ground.

It was so bizarre, they made a big deal about the snow but here it was 46 degrees early this morning, far warmer than it has been at about 29 degrees for several days. Apparently it snowed in the coast range, cascades and SW hills.

Now they're saying it will snow Saturday morning and melt by afternoon.

With all the technology available to meteorologists they are not accurate most of the time.

This could be serious.

[ Fair Use: For Educational / Research / Discussion Purposes Only ]
http://www.oregonlive.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/news/1196396711223810.xml&coll=7
Friday, November 30, 2007, by Stuart Tomlinson, The Oregonian

Monster storm heading our way

A system to arrive Sunday may prompt Oregon's first hurricane wind warning

To the extent forecasting the weather is like playing music, Oregon meteorologists Thursday were cranking up the volume.

Forecasters from the public and private sector, as well as the media, were scrambling to get their arms around a double-whammy of winter weather barreling toward the region. They expect a rare Willamette Valley snowstorm Saturday, followed by what some predict will be a once-a-decade storm packing high winds and heavy rains early next week.

The National Weather Service has said it might issue its first hurricane wind warning for Oregon in advance of the second storm.

"Everything points to this being a very strong, prolonged event," said the weather service's Ira Kosovitz. "We could see sustained winds of 90 miles per hour, if not 100."

The ingredients for snow Saturday at the lower elevations in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington are coming together, with the highest likelihood of accumulations in the area from Salem in the south to Olympia in the north.

"I think we'll see snow starting around 10 or 11 a.m. lasting for a couple of hours but with not a lot of accumulation," said Clinton Rockey of the National Weather Service in Portland. "It should change over to rain by midafternoon, but snow throughout the day in the Columbia River Gorge and the Cascades."

As noteworthy as that forecast is -- snow being rare around here -- the biggest news Thursday at the National Weather Service offices in Portland was the approaching "monster" Pacific storm that's going to bring potentially damaging winds and widespread flooding to the region Sunday into Monday and Tuesday.

The size and scope of the storm -- which has tapped into the energy of typhoons Mitag and Hagibis -- may prompt the first hurricane force wind warning, which would mean sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Oregon and Washington coasts.

That's a big deal, but not quite as big as the "first in history" designation might suggest.

Bill Schneider, the science and operations manager for the weather service, said the agency was given the go-ahead by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration only five years ago, in 2002, to issue such a warning "to highlight the extreme nature of rare storms that may only occur once every 5 to 10 years."

Schneider said such storms -- extratropical cyclones -- don't have the structure of a hurricane, and shouldn't be confused with an actual hurricane, but they are, in fact, larger and have a broader impact zone.

After the wind comes the rain. George Taylor of the Oregon Climate Service characterized the looming storm as a "hybrid," with traits similar to the damaging windstorm of December 1995 and the flooding rains of November 1996.

Forecast models show a plume of moisture extending from Oregon to Hawaii by late Sunday, a classic Pineapple Express that's been called an atmospheric river.

"The intensity of the winds followed by intense rains makes it a very significant storm with big-time rain," Taylor said. "We could see three to four inches (of rain) in the valley, and even more at higher elevations."

The storm is expected to combine rising snow levels with heavy rains, a recipe responsible for damaging floods.

Snow levels -- which have been below pass level this week, allowing Timberline to go to full operations, and Mt. Hood Meadows, Mt. Bachelor and Mt. Hood Skibowl to open additional lifts -- will begin to rise Sunday.

Matt Zaffino, meteorologist for KGW (8) in Portland, said the storm's deep area of low pressure is one of the strongest he's seen in recent memory, even stronger than the Columbus Day Storm of October 1962. He predicted that this storm, however, won't be as damaging as that storm because it will stay farther offshore.

Even so, Zaffino said, "This thing is an absolute monster -- it covers the entire Northeast Gulf of Alaska.

"It's huge."

Here is a link that might be useful: Monster Storm Heading Our Way

It's snowing like crazy here on Vancouver Island and the wind is blowing too, I can hear it moaning and howling through the lattice fence. With this combination we are sure to lose the power - brrr... ! Also restless dog (lab) syndrome: "Cmon, Cmon, lets go slog through the ice/wind/sleet/slush/ - it'll be FUN!!"

My little dog liked to run around in it, too. Flakes now coming down in a fairly serious way here, probably starting sometime a bit before 1:30 PM.

Yes, it's coming down pretty hard and fast here in Shoreline as well and sticking rather well also :-)) The forecast said as much as a 3" accumulation but then warmer temps overnight and tomorrow rain, so it's not supposed to hang around long. But what the heck do they know.....the before Christmas storm of '90 took 'em by surprise, so it's mostly just a certain amount of guesswork based on known conditions.

Inside looking out, it's a very pretty picture. Makes me want to blow off all the chores I had scheduled for today - like setting up and installing a new printer - and curl up in front of the fire with a good book. Stay warm, everyone!

I got about 1" of snow here in Poulsbo proper and more like 5" at the nursery (only two miles away but higher up and closer to Hood Canal). The snow has stopped for the time being but as I look at weather data from around the region I don't see any real substantial signs of the big warmup yet (though I keep hearing about it on the radio). What concerns me now is the sudden drop in temperatures occuring on the northern Olympic Peninsula, which may suggest much colder air wrapping around the back side of the low as it is pulled out of Canada. If that trend continues some areas may yet be dealing with snow with tomorrow's 1-2" of precipitation storm. That would be interesting. The NWS people have mentioned this possibility in the forecast discussion but not the forecast itself. I guess we'll find out. In any case, Monday's storm ought to clean the cold air out for good, for everyone. It's really interesting to watch what happens in these scenarios - at least I think so.

5 inches! Wow!

When I looked out earlier most of it was gone, then late morning a new dose - this time scattered large heavy flakes that could be heard hitting the skylight. These are still falling at a little past 11.

6 inches yesterday! This morning it seemed to be melting and raining but now its snowing big wet flakes. Just rescued a poor young Magnolia grandiflora completely bowed over, also rhodos, although they are a bit more resilient.
It is supposed to warm up tonight.

Now we are up to 9" at the nursery (1-4" in Poulsbo proper depending on where you are) and it's still coming down in huge, 2-3" wide "flakes." I took these pictures this morning at the nursery at about 10:30, when we were at about 6", then made the adventurous drive home down the steep hill into downtown Poulsbo.

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Ceanothus velutinus with Eucalyptus glaucescens

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Shade house. Fortunately I had the idea to take the shade cloth off yesterday before work, or the whole thing might have come down in an unglamorous way.

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Cuttings on bottom heat which sort of melts the snow

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Ceanothus thrysiflorus not taking it quite as well as C. velutinus

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Eucalyptus perriniana

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Growing media and pots

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Greenhouse with some potted plants left outside

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Seedlings

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1' tall Araucaria angustifolia seedlings

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5gallon Furcraeas. These should be fine as it never really got that cold.

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Dicksonia fibrosa

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More seedlings and small plants.

Wow, amazing pics Ian! 44 here, was very windy earlier, pouring rain since yesterday morning, worried about the "off the charts" windstorm that's supposed to sock it to us tonight and tomorrow. The satellite photos are starting to show hurricane-like swirls aiming right at the PacNW. Latest forecast says it will hit WA state harder than expected ...

Ian, beautiful photos. And that's today? It looked quite similar here yesterday, gorgeous big fluffy flakes all day long, but it turned to rain last night and we're been having an absolute deluge all morning. There's nothing left of our snow but some dwindling lumpish snowmen surrounded by green grass.

It's not blowing here on the coast. I've had the TV turned to the NWCN but can't hear it if not right in front of it - pounding rain on my skylights. And tomorrow was supposed to be our heaviest rain? I'm going to be keeping a close eye on my basement :(

Now raining here (Edmonds) also.

Glad you enjoyed the pics. It's still snowing hard here, though I don't see a lot of new accumulation looking out my window, and south winds are picking up, knocking all the snow off the trees. Local data suggest a very slight warmup has begun in just the last half hour. I am sure that it is still piling up at the nursery, though - if I could get there, I would be able to provide an update. Probably getting close to 1 foot or at least 10-11 inches.

Still snowing here on southern Vancouver Island. We must have about 14 inches now. It is going to be awful when the heavy rains come. I took this pic last night and it has continued to snow since then.

Here is a link that might be useful:

Amazing!

Precipitation has stopped now and PARTS of Poulsbo are certainly warming up (mid-upper 30s), but higher altitude personal weather stations still show temperatures around 32-33F. Here's what I'm looking at if anyone is curious. You can zoom out on that map and look at real time temperatures all around the region. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWAPOULS6

Update.... grand total at the nursery.... 14 inches of snow. I can hardly believe how much snow accumulated up there while I was sitting in my apartment in downtown Poulsbo this afternoon watching it turn to slush on Front St. One greenhouse is damaged; if it doesn't get worse I ought to be able to fix it. If I have time I'll post a couple pics later. It's now pouring rain and windy, still only 37 degrees but warming up fast. What a mess!!!

My update: our power has just come on, been out for 4 hours. We live in quite a populated area so there must have been thousands of people out of electricity. It's sure boring... DH and I decided to walk to the mailbox to get newspaper but found that we have another maple tree down across our driveway and we couldn't get around it. It's about 18 inches through, and the branches cover about 20 - 25 feet of the driveway. It sounded like a war zone with the snaps of branches breaking under the snow load. Luckily our handyman is coming tomorrow morning with his chainsaw. Obviously we are trapped until then. I am worrying about the next storm to come in and with all of the snow we have we are sure to get roof leaks. What fun.

Largest Sitka Spruce in USA went down in today's hurricane coastal winds.

Which one (variables involved with measuring their huge trunks has resulted on lack of consensus on which is actually the biggest)?

http://blog.oregonlive.com/breakingnews/2007/12/nations_tallest_sitka_spruce_f.html

"Clatsop County's giant 700-year-old Seaside Sitka spruce reportedly was damaged by the storm on Sunday.

The 200-foot tall Sitka, damaged last winter by high winds, sustained more damage from Sunday's high winds, according to a report from KATU-TV.

The tree has been a pouplar tourist stop along U.S. 26 just east of Seaside. At one point, it had shared co-champion status with a tree in Olympic National Park in Washington as the nation's largest Sitka spruce based on height, trunk circumference and crown spread. The tree was split by lightning 40 years ago, officials reported, and has been ailing since then."

Watched a video of it -- a little ways up from ground trunk snapped, shattered, like the tree exploded. People carrying big chunks of it away. Except for the big base and a bit of trunk there's no tree left.

I heard that there were 30,000 without power this morning on Van Is and dire flood warnings. Our power went off for 12 hours, and we also had a tree down on our driveway, Dotty. Spent the evening huddled by the fire, reading by candle and flashlight. What a mess!! Those hydro power linemen should get medals!Hope you get out soon, Dotty!

Last night we had about 14" of snow but once again we didn't lose power. The temp. has warmed up and with the rain the snow is going fast. Today the concern will be flooding issues for many.

A......

Yeah, I figured you were talking about the Seaside tree. Too bad it failed. Every time one of these ancient behemoths breaks up something marvelous is lost.

Van Pelt, Forest Giants of the Pacific Coast, using the AF* point system assigns the following totals representing overall volume, the higher the total the bigger the tree:

Quinault Lake Spruce, Olympic National Forest, WA---882

Klootchy Creek Giant, Seaside, OR---855

*American Forests

Our snow (only about 6" in my area) disappeared overnight with torrential rains that have only recently slackened. The only other time we had this combo in my vicinity (heavy wet snow followed by a fast thaw and tons of rain) my basement flooded. It's an old house with a not fully excavated basement and I use it only for storage - dark and spooky and not a place I spend any time :-)) Good thing I decided to check it before I left for work this morning.......water was above the top of the sump drain and starting to accumulate. By the time I found the sump pump and got it positioned and hooked up, there was already an inch of water covering the basement :-(( The pump works great but as soon as it hits a level for auto shut-off, the water starts accumulating again, coming in from one side of the unexcavated portion.

The rain appears to have stopped here for the time being, so hopefully the worst is over. There was a bunch of junk piled up in the basement that I had been meaning to attend to - Goodwill stuff and just some garbage, bits and pieces of this and that. Guess the time is now, as it's all pretty sodden!! All the important stuff was either in plastic storage tubs or off the floor, so nothing valuable at risk. But what a bother, plus I lost a day at work.

Gardengal, wow - I'm sorry to hear about that, but glad everything was saved.

After 14 inches of snow followed by 8 inches of rain overnight and today, my nursery is partially under water now. I am not too worried about the plants as I expect the water to recede quickly. The unfortunate thing is I probably lost a kerosene heater, and it spilled fuel.

I took these pics yesterday around 3:15. It was pouring rain and miserable out there so I just got a few pics of this and it was shortly after the meltdown began so I didn't quite get the full 14 inches... anyways enjoy!

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general view

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I'm using these metal shelves to move the nursery. Whenever I come up with the cash I rent a big box truck, then put the shelves in and fill them with plants.

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desert plants

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Embothrium seedlings

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left/center is a bunch of flats of 4" stuff. mostly 1 and 2 gallon plants at right

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Greenhouse buckling under the snow after I already knocked the snow off it twice. Remarkably enough it sort of recovered today after most of the snow melted off and it will only need some minor quick fixing.

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greenhouse exterior

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wheelbarrow full of dead plants and snow

Amazingly even after 8" of rain and strong gusty winds all day, not all the snow has melted yet.

On the plus side, we've been spared most ot the wind here in Poulsbo. Lights have flickered a bit but winds have been less severe than in most places.

8 inches!

It's hard to tell exactly how much it rained at my place based on nearby weather stations but 8 inches is a good educated guess. Here's a station near Silverdale that recorded 8 inches of rain just since midnight last night... storm total ~11 inches! The NWS reported 10.78in near Bremerton but I couldn't find that one.

Here is a link that might be useful: Silverdale PWS

We have a family picture taken with the Seaside Sitka. How very sad! I love the monster trees. When we camped in Yosemite every summer we always had a picnic at the Mariposa Giant Sequoias Grove. They are spectacular! My husband and daughter have never seen them. That's on our list to do for next summer. My mom said they are failing, they are declining in health and need to be watered now.
Terrible!

Wow, can't believe how much it has rained here. We had quite a bit of snow here in Gig Harbor on Saturday.

Why has Bremerton gotten so much more rain then anywhere else? I'm pretty close, it sure seems like we have gotten that much .

Here is a link that might be useful: Giant Sequoias