It is possible there is a change on the physical circuit board, that contracts in the cold, causing a malfunction.

could be a buildup of oil or grease on the shaft that can cause that look close to the unit for a buildup

My Sears garage door was randomly opening and closing. Reprogramming the remotes, including my car remote, fixed it. Sometimes a neighbor's remote will cause this. I called a garage door repair company they said that 90% of the time reprogramming the remotes solves the problem.