The inside wall along my living room window, in the corner at the window sill, is damp and bulging. The paint has cracked and it is soft. This occurred during a heavy downpour, with no visible leak anywhere.

My question is - can this be caused by exterior siding replacement? Our HOA had our siding replaced over the summer, only on this wall with the window. I was shocked at how much the wall and window shook as the contractor pulled off and replaced the siding. Since then, the flashing around the window (I think that's what the metal trim around the outside of the window is called) has looked slightly bent. Now there is this leak. Our HOA will fight us hard on this, so I'd like to know if anyone thinks it's possible it was damaged and is the cause of the leak, or if that doesn't really make sense.

Our siding is wood board, and our window is about 12 years old. Never leaked before. Thanks for any insight you can give me!