The current color of your house is probably affecting your perception of the colors you're sampling. I was surprised when I looked it up that Earl Grey has an LRV of 32. It looks very light against the brown. I suggest you paint sample boards instead of putting sample swatches on your house. Put a border of white around the samples so if you lean them against the house you are viewing them next to white instead of brown. The other advantage of the board is that you can move it around to see it in the different exposures and not have to paint multiple sides of your house to accomplish this. But no matter which color you choose, it will look different on different sides of your house and at different times of the day. So the question is simply, which color do you prefer? Your roof isn't a prominent feature of your house, so while you should keep it in mind, it doesn't look like it is going to drive your choice too much. Try larger, standalone samples and see if that helps you to develop a preference among the four. If not, then you can tell yourself they're equally good and just randomly choose one. :-)

Ask the painters if they can do half of one side the first day and leave it so you can determine whether you're going to hate it on a large scale. Try to be home that day so you can look at it as soon as it's dry. You will need multiple coats to cover the brown. Don't base your opinion on one coat. Usually painters don't want to repaint your house if you hate the color anymore than you want to pay them to do it, because they're likely to have committed to starting another job after yours.

Out of all your choices, I like your top right Earl Gray the best. The old brown is confusing you. You will love Early Gray unless you decide to go darker. And I think the ideas by Chloebud are very good. A green gray could work nicely too..

Brick and Batten has a blog abou this lovely Pewter Green Sherwin Williams color

Brick and Batten Pewter Green Sherwin Williams blog

try a white primer over the brown first . (the painter should prime first anyway)

THEN try your samples.

what direction is that facing? north and east will get cooler, blueish light. keep that in mind

try reading this :

https://www.kylieminteriors.ca/the-best-exterior-paint-colours-why-your-homes-exposure-matters/

This is Gauntlet gray w/wood accents, white trim. Looks very nice.

She has earl gray under this article. it's for interior, but you'll get an idea:

https://www.kylieminteriors.ca/8-most-popular-blue-green-paint-colours-mix-sherwin-williams-and-benjamin-moore/

explains LRV

https://www.kylieminteriors.ca/paint-colors-and-lrv-the-ultimate-guide-to-choosing-the-right-color/

I like Behr Loft Space as shown in this inspiration photo. The closest Sherwin-Williams paint is SW 7662 Evening Shadow but you could use SW 7663 Monorail Silver if you wanted something a bit darker. Of course, how it looks on your house may be different.

loft space could turn lavender w/cooler light

these shades have more brown to them. might work better

Yes, the Behr Neutral Simple Craftsman is also nice.

According to EasyRGB, Sherwin-Williams Classic French Gray is similar to Behr Grant Gray and Sherwin-Williams Dorian Gray is similar to Behr Downtown Gray.

Sherwin-Williams should be able to color match any Benjamin Moore paint color as well. You don't have to limit yourself to SW colors.

I agree, you should ask if they can start priming and if you can test some colors on a primed area so you are not seeing so much brown when you look at your test samples.

You should test on the front of the house as well because the colors will look different framed by the evergreens.

Have you meandered around your neighborhood looking at colors other people have used so you can see what looks good at different times of day in your light?

I personally find the Pacific Northwest incredibly grey and depressing and would need a rich color to contrast the gloom - a really deep evergreen, dark charcoal.

Check out this Portland company that has a whole Pacific NW color line. Maybe one of their colors will catch you and you can find a similar SW color, or ask SW if they can color match and make you a sample. https://www.millerpaint.com/northwest-color-collection/#colors

Thanks to everyone for the great suggestions!

I agree abiut the color you have having an effect on the test ones I think a nice darker color like a dark grayed green would be awesome I find in the PNW ther eis alot of moisture in the air all the time and it grows mildew on almost every surface so I tend to like dark colors that hide that. There is really no way to find a color that looks awesome in every time of day. The color can be colore matched always but use both SW and BM to find the color you like . From chloebud either the Pewter Green or Retreat .Either of those will be better than what you have .

Wanted to share a pic of the finished project using Earl Grey for anyone finding this thread in the future. Trim in Rhinestone. Door in Sea Serpent.

great update!!