Joe Bastardi, using historical synoptic analogs, actually predicted a hot, dry summer and fall in the mid-west, way back in late winter this year.

It's also really bad in northern New England.

I wish the drought monitor website had an aggregate measure of how much of the country is under drought, and then plotted it. Looks like overall, we are doing "as badly" as last year, just with the drought occuring in different places at different times of the year. I've used the website long enough to remember a few times when almost none of the country was under drought.

Oops I guess I'm kind of an incurious idiot. In my defense, the DM website is very 'old school' these days, and doesn't have a portal/landing page/navigator/dashboard/whatever that readily highlights what you can find there. You have to explore the menus.

There is a time series.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

I played around with it...although being close to the northeast geographically, I've tracked the southeast far more w/respect to drought. Here's a useful chart.

I definitely remember 2008 and 2012 being droughts here. OTOH, this chart implies 2024 wasn't as bad, when it was. The 2003-2003 drought was pretty epic and also shows up on the northeast region time series. I'm glad I only had a tiny townhouse garden back then.

Also I suppose in retrospect, 2008 didn't impact my life as much because the cultivated area was comparatively microscopic then - maybe 15% of what I have planted now. My main 1/2 acre woodland garden was started in 2009 and 2010. The balance of my garden beds evolved in the 2010s to the point where I have over one acre of beds now.

It does seem odd. Those areas on the map are not normally places that I would think of as dry or experiencing drought. Michigan is usually very green and lush. The northern part of Illinois, near Chicago, is usually less dry than further south in the state.

I did look at this video, from the beginning of October, that shows farms in Northwest Ohio, and things do look almost as dry as California's central valley, which is really rather dry and dusty.

Northwest Ohio farmers explain drought's impact on crops | wtol.com

Drought begets itself in the warm season when the moisture released to the atmosphere by vegetation/ground transpiration is a significant part of the relatively local rainfall mechanisms. Cold-season rain/snow is governed by large-scale synoptic features and not much local affects.

My spot is on track for the driest year since 2010 (34 inches). 30 inches right now, tho the lawn is actually still mostly green. Can't remember the year (maybe 1988) in early fall when driving up in central PA, there wasn't a blade of green grass anywhere. Also remember as a child in west MD the every-summer burnt lawns of the mid to late 1960s.

We had rain up until the end of July but after that, the occasional rain we did get was 0.03 or 0.06 with mid 80's, windy and sunny for several days in between. None of it was enough to penetrate the soil and dried up within hours of the event.

The unusual part is that some people, within a few miles to ten-mile distance around us, had gotten good soaking rains of 1"+ to 2.5" more than once during the month of September. Very spotty though.

The temperatures have recently cooled into the 50's and today (day after I watered the new and more water loving trees & plants) it's raining light to moderate (maybe a tenth or two total?), so at least the heat stress is not an issue and what I watered won't dry out in a day or so.

Cloudy and cool the next few days with chance of light rain, the winds have calmed also.

I put the hoses away for the season. ;-)

I don't keep track of weather history. What's done is done and I'm always looking to what's ahead. We did get nice rains this spring and early summer so it's not as bad as summer of 2023 when near zero rains was the norm for the whole season with excessively hot, sunny days.

Still 2-1/2 months without rain is a really long dry spell during the hot time of the year and things do suffer here with the poor sandy soil.

And generally, this time of year, is when we get the 3-4 day soaking rains that replenish the ground. That could still happen.

I have a feeling the concept of "drought" is all relative. The pictures and all the descriptions I am seeing do not sound as bad as the normal summers almost anywhere in the western half of the country.

Although maybe part of the reason for the drought is that earlier in the year the soil got inundated with water and then got baked hard in the dry heat, so is then not easily able to absorb water.

beng - a dry year for you (34" in 2010) is an average year at my location. We've had about 22" so far this year, with 28" being the average at this point. Definitely one of the driest late summer/fall seasons I've experienced here. Thankfully, we had adequate precipitation earlier in the year, so there's still some residual moisture deeper in the soil.

10-29-2025:

We had an all-day drizzle yesterday that amounted to 0.56".

First measurable rainfall in over 2 months.

NOAA winter forecast says colder than normal and snowier than normal Nov., Dec. & January.

I'd welcome significant snow by end of November.

'I'd welcome significant snow by end of November.'

FWIW:

Who knew?

First correct prediction of precipitation in a while here. Started as rain, stopping sometime tonight.

We'll take it!