Our current stairs are pictured above

We are about to refinish floors on the 2nd level of our home so that we can start the process of moving in. We have a staircase where we would like to replace the railing, as well as rip out carpet and refinish the stairs and 2nd floor hallway. The railing would need to be custom and lead times are long. Would you refrain from refinishing the hallway and stairs until you could get the railing done? OR would you refinish the stairs and hallway, and do the railing later, knowing you might have to make adjustments on the treads, etc (what our flooring company suggested). I know in general you should do the railing first, but we really need to get moving and the idea of waiting 3 months to move in is not an option.

What if we refinish everything and when the railing comes out, it causes damage? That is my main worry. or even if it does not cause damage, the holes for the balusters may not line up. does this require resadming and restaining of the entire tread and/ or hallway? I’d rather not do the job 2x.

Below is somewhat what we would like although our bottom stair is curved so not sure a newel post works. Maybe a round post or a volute? We were told that because it is not a true curved piece it harder to do and requires more posts.